Breeders' Cup Friday Tips: Three To Back At Del Mar
Undoubtedly the biggest race meeting every year over in the United States is the Breeders' Cup, and in 2024 the iconic Championships head to Del Mar! As always, there are a host of European challengers heading Stateside in the hunt of glory and Billy Grimshaw has provided his three best Friday bets for us here...
#AD 18+ New customers only. 7 days to place qualifying bet of £10 at 1/1 (2.0) to receive 4 x £10 Free Bets. 7 day expiry. Exclusions apply. Stake not returned. 18+. Full T&Cs apply. 18+ GambleAware.org
21:45 Del Mar - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint
There is a heavy European presence in this race, as is the norm these days in all the turf races Stateside at the Breeders' Cup, however nestled in between a host of European runners is an interesting Japanese contender Ecoro Sieg. It is tough to compare form lines from one continent to another, especially when the race itself will be taking place in a third, but the Japanese raider could hardly have done more in his two wins so far, cruising to victory as 2/5 favourite both times. He may well have more upside than most in here, but I'm going to side with a European horse who looks overpriced.
SHAREHOLDER won the Norfolk earlier this season at Royal Ascot and while Del Mar and Ascot could hardly be more different as tracks, the fact this horse is two for two on good to firm yet had his one poor run on good to soft gives me confidence he will like the rattling fast ground. On both wins he dwelt the start and that would usually be curtains for a European heading stateside, however as this race is so stacked with Euro raiders I think it'll be run pretty much like a race over here would be on quick ground.
In turf races at the Del Mar Breeders' Cups of 2017 and 2021 there was a definite pace bias for closers and those in midfield, with prominent runners disadvantaged. With that in mind, even if Shareholder does start slowly I'll back Karl Burke's Royal Ascot winner, with Buick in the plate, to find his way into contention. To my eye he should be closer to 7/1 so the 12/1 each-way with BetMGM is worth snaffling. I'm against Big Mojo and Aesterius most due to both being prominent types so would fear Whistlejacket most for Aidan O'Brien.
23:05 Del Mar - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
At Del Mar, box one is often dreaded and this was the draw that was given to hot favourite for this race LAKE VICTORIA. Undoubtedly this is a negative, however I'm fairly sure this is a special filly and with Ryan Moore showing over the years his mastery at the Breeders' Cup, I'm willing to back her at a shade of odds against to overcome the draw and power clear at Del Mar to give Aidan O'Brien a second win in this race after Meditate's 2022 triumph.
Lake Victoria heads what looks a vintage crop of two year old fillies on this side of the pond for the class of 2024 and after storming clear for wins at both Curragh and Newmarket the last twice in high class races, and being by Frankel, I'm in little doubt she will relish this step up to a mile. She is four from four, proven on all surfaces, has the best jockey around in the plate and should be fine a bit further back in the field if she does get squeezed from her draw. This is a special filly in my view and she rates as the Friday NAP in this race.
I would put no one off an Aidan O'Brien forecast bet either as I think Heavens Gate is no back number and could well be the one who gives her higher profile stablemate the most to think about. This Churchill filly looks to be itching to step up to a mile or even beyond so could well put in a career best over this mile trip Stateside.
23:45 Del Mar - Breeders' Cup Juvenile
EAST AVENUE has looked an absolute weapon so far for Godolphin and despite only running twice before coming here, the manner of his destructive victories means I think he is worth supporting despite the potentially short price. An eight length winner on debut when hardly breaking a sweat, he took his form onto a whole new level when taking the Breeders' Futurity last time out at Keeneland, romping to Group 1 glory under hands and heels from the front.
Although I have been lukewarm about turf horses being leaders or prominent at this Breeders' Cup, those worries do not apply to the horses running on the dirt if we analyse this season's Del Mar stats as well as past Breeders' Cup performance here. East Avenue is a brute of a front runner and I'm expecting one of the performances of the Championships in this race before the horse embarks on a spectacular three year old campaign in 2025.
He looks to be a horse with everything, with both a high cruising speed that will take the chasers out of their comfort zone as well as a devastating turn of foot when told to put his race to bed. Godolphin's Breeders' Cup legend Cody's Wish is a close relation and I think their dirt operation may have their next flag bearer here in EAST AVENUE.