December Gold Cup Tips: You'd Be Mad Not To

Cheltenham dishes out a treat in the early afternoon on Saturday with the big betting race of the weekend, the December Gold Cup. A host of old rivals lock horns again at Prestbury Park, but Billy Grimshaw is sweet on the chances of a young pretender...

As a tipster / writer / editor / whatever I am when writing about big handicap races like this, you just never want to tip the favourite. Yes, a 5/1 winner in any other context is welcomed, but there's something about these big field Cheltenham handicap chases that just beg for you to take a swing at one at a wild price in the hopes of an upset. Try as I might, however, I cannot get away from the fact I'm confident MADARA is the most likely winner of this year's December Gold Cup.

The place to start every year when analysing this race is the Paddy Power Gold Cup which takes place over C&D a month or so earlier, as you can almost guarantee half the field will be back ready to do battle once more in this contest. Il Ridoto was a very impressive winner of the race that day and now attempts to do the double, although he has an eight pound rise in the weights to contend with and was finishing a bit of a tired horse to my eye, so is one I am happy to swerve for win purposes. He is probably an each-way lock again (I said this before the Paddy Power so take it with a pinch of salt) but as I always repeat, I can't get excited about single figure each-way plays when I don't really see much hope in the win part of the bet.

The same logic applies to GA Law, a model of consistency for Jamie Snowden but just a touch too high in the weights when there are rivals in here lurking with more unexposed profiles and more attractive marks. One such runner is last year's winner Fugitif, who is only a pound higher this time around. He just rallied to catch Il Ridoto in the shadow of the winning post in 2023 and his somewhat scratchy jumping last time out in the Paddy Power can be explained away by the fact it was his first run of the season, which he often needs. He weakened out of contention back in November but this will have been circled as the big one by team Hobson and I expect him to strip much fitter in defence of his crown. He rates the main danger - although I'm hardly telling you anything you don't already know looking at the odds grids!

The reasons I think Madara simply has to be the bet are multifaceted. Firstly, I think his win over in Ireland last season when trained by Sophie Leech is still underestimated. For a British trained five year old to pop over to the Irish's backyard and win a competitive handicap in the manner he did takes some doing, and if he hadn't finished so tamely in the Grand Annual a month or so afterwards I think it'd be spoken about more.

There is a school of thought that his whole campaign will be geared around a revenge mission in the aforementioned Grand Annual, however I don't think the Skeltons on their chase for the title will be leaving a prize like this on the shelf if they can grab it. In March he was travelling very well indeed before a bad mistake three out saw him lose all momentum. In a race like the Grand Annual, that is fatal for your chances of glory and he weakened into ninth. Nevertheless, he is still such a young horse that mistakes like that can be easily brushed aside.

The less said about his one run for Keiran Burke the better, but the switch to Dan Skelton has seemed to revitalise him judging by what we saw in the Paddy Power. It was hardly the softest ride I've seen Harry Skelton give, but on closer examination watching the race replay it is clear he was minded into the race and was not asked for absolutely everything at the point he arguably should have been, as the leaders rounded the home turn and forged into what became an unassailable advantage. Nevertheless, Madara still finished full of running and was rattling home to grab fourth place, something which if this race has always been the target would have to be classed as almost perfect.

We all know how much being prominent helps in these handicap chases at Cheltenham and I'm praying Harry Skelton let's the horse get involved in the battle for the pace here. If he does, and Madara can keep up in the early stages with known frontrunners like Il Ridoto and others, I think he'll be finishing best of all. Fugitif could well be the danger flying late, but if Madara is there or thereabouts at the last couple of obstacles I'm confident he gets the job done.