Doncaster Cup Betting Tips: Billy Grimshaw’s Big Race Preview & Best Bet

The staying division takes centre stage at Doncaster on Friday afternoon as eight runners go to post for the Group 2 Doncaster Cup over two miles and two furlongs. Dual Group 1 winner Caballo De Mar brings comfortably the strongest CV into the contest, but Aidan O'Brien's Queenstown arrives on the back of an impressive return to action at the Curragh and there are several intriguing contenders further down the betting. Billy Grimshaw takes a closer look at the field and gives his idea of the winner below.

The first place to start is Caballa De Mar because on achievements alone he really should be winning races like this. His rise through the staying ranks has been quite remarkable, progressing from handicaps to win last year's Prix du Cadran before returning to Longchamp in May and adding the Prix Vicomtesse Vigier to his CV. That latest Group 1 success came on soft ground over just shy of two miles, when he got the better of Santorini Star and the 120-rated Al Riffa in a blanket finish.

That is comfortably the strongest piece of form anyone brings to Doncaster, but the question is whether we are currently seeing the same Caballo De Mar.

His Gold Cup effort can be forgiven. He attempted to get involved with Scandinavia and Trawlerman and paid the price late on over two and a half miles, eventually weakening right out of contention. More concerning was his run in the Lonsdale Cup at York last month. Sent off the 7/4 favourite on good to soft ground, he could manage only fourth behind Al Nayyir, Illinois and Mount Atlas. There was nothing disastrous about the run, but he was beaten nearly seven lengths in conditions which should have suited him and he had no obvious excuse.

There is also a fairly important wrinkle in the weights. Caballo De Mar is officially rated 115, five pounds superior to Queenstown on 110, but because of his Group 1 success he has to carry 9st 12lb here. Queenstown carries 9st 7lb. In other words, the ratings tell you there is five pounds between them and the race conditions ask Caballo De Mar to concede exactly five pounds. That makes their task much closer than simply looking at their official marks would suggest.

The softer surface certainly does not worry me with Caballo De Mar. He won the Cadran on very soft ground last year and his Longchamp success this spring came on soft, so if anything the weather is in his favour. He could bounce straight back and, at around 9/4, I wouldn't put anyone off him.

But I am not convinced he should be shorter than the horse I fancy.

The bigger prices are interesting without being completely convincing. Berkshire Sundance stays all day and ran a very good race when second in the Goodwood Handicap over two miles and four furlongs, but he is rated only 102 and this requires a significant career best. Epic Poet has regularly competed at a good level but has become difficult to win with, while Ascending and Beylerbeyi also need to find plenty on the figures.

Winday is far more interesting. This is exactly the sort of runner that makes me slightly nervous when opposing him, because Emmet Mullins does not tend to place horses without reason and the booking of William Buick immediately catches the eye. The three-year-old receives 11lb from Queenstown and 16lb from Caballo De Mar under the weight-for-age scale, and he absolutely bolted up by six lengths at Ffos Las on his first run back for Mullins last month.

The problem is what he actually achieved. That was a five-runner maiden over a mile and a half which on bare form leaves him with an enormous amount to find now jumping directly into a Group 2 over almost another mile. He could be much better than we have seen, and at 6/1 I understand the temptation, but you are paying quite a lot for the trainer, jockey and potential rather than established staying form.

That leaves me with QUEENSTOWN, and I think his profile is considerably stronger than the market perhaps initially gave him credit for. He has always been something of a nearly horse at the top level. Back in 2024 he twice chased home Kyprios in recognised staying trials and last season he ran third in the Ebor before developing into a genuine Group 1 performer in France. He finished third behind Caballo De Mar in the Prix du Cadran and then went to Saint-Cloud three weeks later and finished a very good second to Arrow Eagle in the Prix Royal-Oak on soft ground.

The Cadran form is particularly relevant. Caballo De Mar beat Queenstown by three lengths there when the pair carried exactly the same weight. Tomorrow, Queenstown receives five pounds from him. I wouldn't pretend that automatically reverses the result — racing is never that simple — but it is a significant swing when the horse who finished behind has seemingly improved since.

His reappearance at the Curragh is the run that really interests me. Queenstown had been absent for 300 days and went off at 9/1 for the Group 3 Irish St Leger Trial, so there was every reason to expect him to need the outing. Instead, he travelled into the race strongly and put four and a half lengths between himself and Kizlyar, with the odds-on favourite Carmers another eight lengths further back. It was the most visually impressive performance of his career and earned him a Racing Post Rating of 115, while tomorrow's racecard now has his peak RPR at 122.

The obvious question is whether that was simply a weak Group 3, but I don't think he needs to have suddenly become a 125-rated superstar to win this. He merely needs to confirm that he is now a better horse than the one who regularly found one or two too good last season.

Aidan O'Brien has had to wait since 2008 for another Doncaster Cup winner, but Queenstown looks an excellent opportunity to put that right. Ryan Moore takes over, the ground holds absolutely no concerns given his strong form on soft and very soft surfaces, and two miles and two furlongs looks right in the middle of his optimum stamina range.

Caballo De Mar is the danger and I would much rather have him onside than oppose him with one of the outsiders simply in search of a price. However, he has now disappointed twice since Longchamp, carries the penalty and has to give five pounds to a rival who looked better than ever just three weeks ago.

At around 7/4, QUEENSTOWN is not a flashy price, but I think he is the right favourite and the right bet. His Curragh performance suggested there could still be a little more improvement to come from this unusually lightly raced six-year-old and, receiving five pounds from Caballo De Mar, he can land the Doncaster Cup for Aidan O'Brien.