Epsom Derby Tips: 25/1 Shot Can Bag Classic

A thoroughly absorbing Derby awaits as the feature race of Saturday, and for some people the season, and the betting market tells a story; this is wide open. Billy Grimshaw has taken a look through the field and comes down on a big priced poke who could shock the world...

There are three types of Derby if you look through recent history. The first is when a superstar rocks up at a short price and either justifies or lets down the hype. The second is a small field race with a disappointing turnout, which is everyone's least favourite Epsom Classic, and the third we have on our hands this Saturday. An absolute punting minefield with chances aplenty and at least half a dozen horses with excellent chances.

As a betting man as much as a racing fan, I love these types of Derby and have spent hours delving into the pedigrees, form and more of the runners to hopefully come up with a profitable punting plan. The place I'll start is the most important piece of information in any race, the pace. I think this is going to be a Derby for stayers rather than speedballs and those with an eagle eye will know this means I am putting a line through some of the market principles, which should mean we get value on our stamina laden picks!

Ruling Court will go off favourite providing the rain really doesn't hammer down on Epsom and the 2000 Guineas winner is undoubtedly one of the most talented horses in the field, however for all Godolphin and the team should be commended for rolling the big dice with their star colt, I don't think he'll be anything like as good on this ground over 12f as he will eventually be over 10f in high summer or even as he has proven to be over a mile. He's a brilliant horse, but not a Derby winner to me. I also think Delacroix is too short and would doubt his stamina, considering his trial win was a dawdle before a sprint finish. He may prove me wrong and be an emphatic winner, staying the trip no problem, but at the prices he is an easy swerve.

The Lion In Winter was all the rage for this race over the winter but after meeting a setback and a poor return run in the Dante, as well as Ryan Moore ditching him, his price is much bigger than the 7/4 antepost now at about 7/1. For all he has talent, I didn't like how buzzy he was at York and it's not going to be any less frazzling at Epsom, so he's another of the market leaders I am against. 

I would not be as dismissive of the Dante winner Pride Of Arres and think he has a great chance considering how unexposed he is and the brilliant form he showed at York but on watching that race back I wouldn't make Damysus treble the price of the winner. He had to go wider and didn't get the dream run up the inner that the winner did that day, and there wasn't much between their finishing speeds up until the race was over. It's hard to split them on pure form so if betting one of the two, it'd be a no brainer for me to back the Gosden runner at 12s rather than his York conqueror at 4s.

Lambourn is actually the Ballydoyle horse I fear most as I think his Chester Vase win is underappreciated and with my projection that the pace will be strong - indeed, he could be the pacesetter or close to it - he must have claims because I reckon he will easily stay this trip and in fact could emerge as the big Leger contender. There is a horse trained by an O'Brien but not Aidan, Joseph, however, who to me looks wildly overpriced and has to be backed in the shape of TENNESSEE STUD.

A group 1 winner at two over in France, he was lacklustre behind Delacroix on seasonal reappearance, finishing a seven length and well beaten third, but with the horse clearly needing that run and the manner in which the race developed - dawdle, dawdle, sprint! - He was never going to be seen to best effect. In a race like this where the pace will be ferocious, he is drawn in the middle and the ground is a bit slower, everything is set up for a massive run from the Wooton Basset colt and at 40/1 I will be gladly getting stuck into him each-way. 

As I've mentioned on multiple occasions I think this is a Derby for the stayers and he is almost certainly one of those, so although there may be one or two better than him he rates a knocking each-way play with the place part of the bet looking juicy, and I wouldn't rule him out entirely from shocking the racing world and winning The Derby!