Irish 2000 Guineas Tips: Home Team Can Strike

Afrer the English equivalent took place earlier this month, the Irish 2000 Guineas is the headline attraction at the Curragh on a busy Saturday of racing.Eight horses wil clash for Classic honours over a mile and Billy Grimshaw has scoured the field before making a case for the horse he thinks will scoop the prize...

Rosallion is the right favourite and undoubtedly sets the standard on his second placed finish in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket a few weekends ago. He ran a fine race for Richard Hannon and the team had a decent weekend with Haatem - who reopposes here - finishing one place back in third. Both are likeable types and look set for enjoyable campaigns for their respective set of connections, but at the prices perhaps the latter named merits more value than the former considering he was only a length or so off his stablemate in a race in which he perhaps paid the price for being on the pace and setting things up for the winner and his stablemate who were stalking.

There seems to be little doubt at Hannon's yard that Rosallion is the better animal, however, and so for betting purposes I'm happy enough to swerve both given they are heading for an 'away game' as Nicky Henderson would call it. Aidan O'Brien does not have as fearsome a record in this race over the past decade as one would perhaps suspect, winning three of the last ten including last season's Classic with Paddington.

Nevertheless, it is a tough task to go over to the Curragh and beat the Irish home team and although both have their chances, the market dictates backing an Irish runner is the smart play right now. O'Brien is still the winning most Irish 2000 Guineas trainer with 12 and he sends three in search of number 13, headed by RIVER TIBER. He will be the mount of Ryan Moore ahead of Unquestionable and Mountain Bear and looks to have the strongest form on offer of the trio. I was put off the three Ballydoyle representatives when noting that all of O'Brien's past 12 winners had had a run before claiming this prize, which will put plenty off his string who are all making their seasonal debuts here.

Despite this potential negative, I did like River Tiber as a two year old and the Wootten Bassett colt could well have put to bed concerns over his stamina at the Breeders' Cup were he not withdrawn - controversially - on vet's advice on the day of the race. He did his winning over six furlongs last campaign and clearly has pace to burn, with his only defeat coming behind the potential star sprinter of his generation Vandeek.

The claims of the other two Ballydoyle runners are also enticing, however Unquestionable got the better of Mountain Bear over in the States and before that was beaten fair and square by the favourite in this race. Following that formline it is tough to see how either turn the tables giving away race fitness, despite the advantage of course experience and not having to cross the Irish Sea. River Tiber's credentials in comparison to Rosallion are untested but at the prices I'm happy to put my faith in Moore and O'Brien with a horse who on breeding and on visual evidence should be able to stay the mile.

Outside of the quintet already mentioned we have the outsiders of the field, starting with Atlantic Coast for Joseph O'Brien. He flopped in a Guineas trial at Leopardstown to begin his season and while he will surely strip fitter for that run, it's tough to see why on any of his juvenile form he can get involved here. Bright Stripes was beaten by Atlantic Coast last season and like that rival flopped in the Leopardstown trial so has it all to do here for Andy Oliver. The field is completed by rank outsider Take Me To Church and he could well be the front runner if the team stick with tactics he has employed thus far. He should set things up for the more classy operators in the field, and hopefully he makes the race perfect for River Tiber to strike gold.