ITV Racing Tips: Four To Back On Scottish Grand National Day
There is a packed Saturday of action to come for both flat and jumps fans this weekend, with Ayr hosting one of its best ever cards due to three title chasing trainers attending and a premier raceday taking place at Newbury. Billy Grimshaw has scoured the ITV Racing cards and has four recommended bets...
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13:30 Newbury - Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes
This race looks ripe to take on the favourites, with plenty of the biggest flat racing yards still yet to fully catch fire as the season slowly is brought to life. Arrest is favourite and is actually a horse I am keen to keep onside of this season, especially on softer ground, but Newbury is set to stay dry until raceday and that would be a big negative against him, as well as the fact the trainers are yet to really get going and will not have the horse tuned up for this target when his big day out is sure to be the Arc all the way in October.
Hamish is probably a decent price as second favourite and he is still on his long winning run from last season, however like the Gosdens with Arrest William Haggas is off to a slow start to the season and I do just wonder if Hamish will come on massively for this run. Perhaps his class will see him through when not cherry ripe, but this looks a race to play an outsider.
Step forward CHESSPIECE for Simon and Ed Crisford. This team are in good form in comparison to the bigger stables entered in here and the suspicion is they will have Chesspiece primed for this, on his first run since being gelded. His form last season reads well and William Buick is certainly a positive jockey booking, so with a weak pace anticipated and a masterful jockey on board I'm hoping Buick gets his mount out of the gates quickly, hits the front and is not caught. It all sounds so easy written down...
14:25 Ayr - Scottish Champion Hurdle
This looks a cracking renewal of this race, with plenty in here who like to get on with things meaning it will surely set up for the finishers. Rubaud can only go one way and that is hell for leather, and his stablemate Afadil likes to get on with things too so won't be far off.
Favour And Fortune is another prominent racer and although he has been off the boil for a while, First Street is another who will be close to the pace one suspects. Yesterday the obvious bet was Bialystok, who was backed down to 6/1 from double figures once news broke that Paul Townend will ride. He should relish everything about this test at Ayr and while at Cheltenham he was not seen to best effect, there are plenty who think he'd have won at the DRF prior to this if not for being brought down.
He may well go off favourite if the money continues to come, but there is one man who can rival and even better Willie Mullins in handicaps these days and that is Dan Skelton. He has the current market leader and my fancy L'EAU DU SUD, who was just touched off last time out at the Festival in the County and can make amends here off just a 3lbs higher mark.
Paul Townend gave the winner that day Absurde the ride of the Festival to thread the eye of the needle and nab Harry Skelton, but there is little doubt in my mind L'Eau Du Sud is destined for bigger things and if he drifts due to the confidence in Bialystok, I'd not be dissuaded.
15:00 Ayr - Jordan Electrics Ltd Seafield Trophy Mares' Handicap Hurdle
This race is similar to the one prior in terms of the market leading connections, with Mullins and Skelton jousting for favouritism. Paul Townend will have his rides acca'ed up across the land one suspects and his mount A Penny A Hundred could still have stacks of improving to do, considering how lightly raced she is and how she ran so well for fourth in Grade 1 company last time out.
Nevertheless, she does have to give weight away to most in here and once again I was more keen on Skelton's main runner here in Coco Mademoiselle. She doesn't necessarily look the type who will improve for this step up in trip, but she does come here in winning form - albeit she was long odds-on - but both favourites can be swerved for betting purposes as they have been well found.
It is a risk to be taking on this strong Mullins team but they do very much look like the substitutes bench of the reserves and price is everything in betting, so at double figures each-way OTTIZZINI looks worth a go to me with her stamina assured. There are plenty in here who may not like the test of three miles, including the market leaders, but Ottizzini has already exemplified her stamina and while she is not as classy as a few in here, I'm hopeful she can stretch them out and run her usual solid race. She has run her best races from the front anyway and on handicap debut up in trip, I'm hopeful she blasts off.
Her best may not be enough to win but she is overpriced in the place part of the bet so rates a solid enough choice.
15:15 Newbury - Spring Cup Handicap
The big betting race of the day at Newbury is the Spring Cup, and there are plenty in here with a big chance. Lattam is the market leader at the time of writing, however with the anticipated drying ground throughout Friday and Saturday I'm not sure he will have optimal conditions here as he is markedly better when the mud is flying.
George Boughey does well at this time of year and has booked William Buick for his Raadobarg, a very consistent type but again one who would prefer the ground to stay on the softer side. Noble Order represents the in-form Archie Watson and has Hollie Doyle in the saddle. He won last time out so easily at Newcastle and a six pound rise could underestimate his progress, so he was one that was hard to ignore.
Ignore him we will though as I am sweet on THUNDER BALL for the Paul and Oliver Cole team to gain some redemption for a better than it seems run in the Lincoln. On paper his seventh placed finish is no great shakes, however watching the race back it was obvious that those who were prominent - as he was - were disadvantaged. He finished first of those who tried to force it all the way and with the Cole team reporting he could well have needed that run, there is surely scope for him to kick on and be very competitive in this race. It'd be no surprise were he to go off favourite so I'd take the price as quickly as you can.
Scottish Grand National Preview
Billy has penned a full preview of the Scottish Grand National, which you can read below...