ITV Racing Tips: Three To Back On Sprint Cup Saturday

Billy Grimshaw is back with his latest ITV Racing tips for Saturday afternoon, with nine races shown live from Haydock, Ascot and Kempton.

The Betfair Sprint Cup takes centre stage at Haydock, where conditions have turned testing following significant rainfall, while there is also Group-race action from Kempton and two competitive handicaps at Ascot.

Billy has studied all nine televised races and picked out his three strongest bets on the card, including an each-way fancy in the Sprint Cup.

13:25 Haydock - Superior Mile Stakes

There are more established horses in this Group 3 but I think the market is right to latch onto the lightly raced three-year-old NEEDLE MATCH, who has a profile I find very difficult to knock given how the weather has played out.

William Haggas' colt has only run four times and his sole start at two came on heavy ground at Newbury, where he overcame inexperience to make a winning debut. He was then thrown straight into the Greenham on his reappearance and shaped with plenty of promise in fourth before the 2000 Guineas proved too much too soon. I'm more than happy to put a line through that Newmarket effort rather than decide after three career starts that he was not up to this sort of level.

His return at Leopardstown last month was far more instructive. Having been off for 96 days, he finished a very good second in the Group 3 Desmond Stakes and there was enough greenness about him to suggest we are nowhere near the bottom of this horse yet. He should strip fitter for that and the five pounds he receives from the older horses is not insignificant in ground that could turn this into a proper slog.

Dancing Gemini is clearly the horse to beat on peak form and has an official rating of 117, but he has become increasingly difficult to trust and was beaten before stamina could be used as an excuse at York last time. Persica is solid rather than spectacular, while The Lost King is hugely likeable after winning back-to-back York handicaps, including on soft last time, but he now has to prove himself against proper Group horses.

Needle Match still has to bridge a ratings gap, but unlike most of these we simply do not know where his ceiling lies yet. He handles deep ground, gets the weight-for-age allowance, comes here off arguably his best performance and should have more to give. I am quite sweet on him at 11/4.

15:05 Haydock - Old Borough Cup

Aegean Prince may turn out to be much better than a handicapper rated 99 and Finalise is another lightly raced four-year-old with obvious upside, but backing horses on what they might become at relatively short prices is not always my favourite way into these big Saturday handicaps.

Give me the battle-hardened STRESSFREE at 7/1 instead.

David O'Meara's six-year-old ran in this very race 12 months ago and finished third from a mark of 102. He returns this year from 97, so is effectively five pounds better treated, and crucially he arrives after showing at York that his ability remains very much intact. He finished sixth of 22 in the Ebor just a fortnight ago from a two-pound higher mark, staying on well in what was obviously a deeper race than this.

The ground is the other major attraction. Stressfree has always looked a better horse when there is juice underfoot and has repeatedly run well in soft and heavy-ground handicaps. Tomorrow will also place the emphasis firmly on stamina and that holds absolutely no concerns given his record around this trip. There are several horses in here whose ability to cope with a genuinely attritional mile and six furlongs has to be taken on trust; his does not.

Aegean Prince commands respect because Charlie Appleby's runner won by eight lengths after a similar absence last year and subsequently finished second in Listed company on soft ground, so I'm not pretending he is merely a bad favourite. My issue is the price. He has been off since October, carries 9st 12lb and is being asked to win a deep handicap on heavy ground at around 11/4. That is an awful lot baked into one relatively short quote.

Stressfree meanwhile has recent big-field form, proven stamina, proven ability with plenty of cut and a handicap mark which gives him a proper chance. Four places are available with some firms at the time of writing and that makes the each-way play straightforward enough for me.

15:40 Haydock - Betfair Sprint Cup

This is a cracking little Sprint Cup despite the relatively small field and I can absolutely understand why punters are gravitating towards Kind Of Blue. He has finished second in this race for the last two years and his biggest career success came when winning the Champions Sprint on soft ground, so if ever a horse was entitled to look at the weather forecast and start licking his lips, it is probably him.

At around half the price of PABORUS, however, I would rather take the latter.

His eighth in the City Of York Stakes last time is much better than it looks on paper. Paborus travelled like one of the likeliest winners for a long way over seven furlongs before his effort petered out late and dropping him back to six on this ground looks almost tailor-made. He has spent much of his career over further, which should be an asset rather than a hindrance when six furlongs at Haydock is going to demand considerably more stamina than usual.

The most compelling piece of form came at Newcastle in June. Dropped to six furlongs for the Chipchase, he beat Marvelman comfortably and the form has strengthened considerably since. Timeform awarded that performance a rating of 119, actually a pound higher than the figure Almeraq achieved when landing the Group 1 Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot a week earlier. Marvelman has subsequently run a cracker behind Notable Speech at York and is shorter than Paborus in tomorrow's market, despite having been comprehensively put in his place by him at Newcastle.

Almeraq is clearly dangerous and his July Cup flop can be forgiven, while Kind Of Blue has perhaps the most obvious conditions angle of anyone. Neither is being missed by the market though. Paborus has already won on soft ground, stays seven furlongs, has relatively few miles on the clock for a five-year-old and trainer Ed Bethell knows exactly what is required here having won this race with Regional in 2023.

Heavy ground can make Group 1 sprints look very different to the ratings beforehand and I want a horse who can travel at sprint pace without his stamina giving way late. Paborus fits that description perfectly and the 8/1 still looks too big to me.

He's the one I most want running for us on Saturday and is my NAP.