ITV Racing Tips: Two Thursday Fancies At Doncaster's St Leger Meeting

Billy Grimshaw returns with his latest ITV Racing tips on Thursday as the St Leger Festival continues at Doncaster.

There are five races being shown live on ITV and Billy has picked out two bets from the card, starting with a competitive three-year-old handicap at 14:25 before taking on the short-priced favourite in the Group 2 May Hill Stakes at 15:35.

Conditions at Doncaster are currently described as good to soft, good in places.

14:25 Doncaster - Pertemps Network Handicap

There are a few potentially smart horses lurking in this handicap and I can see why punters will be tempted by the likes of Besieged and Knights Charge, but KING OF EARTH is the one I keep coming back to at around 4/1.

Besieged is probably the most interesting horse in the race long-term. He absolutely demolished his rivals by 14 lengths at Salisbury last time and, being a Dubawi colt out of Snow Lantern, he has the pedigree to develop into something considerably better than a handicapper. That victory is perhaps not quite as strong as it looks at first glance though. The runner-up was sent off at 150/1 and Besieged earned an RPR of 98, so this is a completely different examination from beating up inferior maiden opposition.

King Of Earth has already passed the handicap test. His only previous appearance in one came in a valuable 16-runner Premier Handicap at the Curragh in June, where he travelled prominently before battling his way to victory from a mark of 85. The runner-up that day was rated 93 and the first three pulled clear enough for me to consider it a pretty solid piece of form.

William Haggas then aimed considerably higher and sent him into the Group 3 Strensall Stakes at York last time. He finished only tenth, but that was a huge jump in grade for a colt rated just 92 and I don't think we should be punishing him too harshly for failing to trouble genuine Pattern performers.

He now drops straight back into handicap company from the same mark of 92, Tom Marquand returns to the saddle and there are no concerns about some cut in the ground. King Of Earth was second here at Doncaster on good to soft earlier in the year and has also run well on heavy ground.

Knights Charge is another who could be miles better than his current mark, but he has been absent for 114 days and makes his handicap debut. At roughly the same sort of price, I'd rather side with the horse who has already won a big-field handicap and has subsequently been tested at Group level.

I think King Of Earth has been handed a much more realistic assignment and 4/1 is fair enough for me.

15:35 Doncaster - Betfred May Hill Stakes

Musical Times could be very good. She is unbeaten in two starts for Charlie Appleby, William Buick rides and her debut form has worked out nicely, with the filly she beat narrowly at Newmarket, Scommessa Sicura, subsequently developing into a Listed-class performer.

I just don't particularly want to take 7/4 to find out quite how good Musical Times is.

She has won a maiden and a novice, has never previously raced beyond seven furlongs and is now being asked to step straight into a Group 2 over a mile. The market is effectively pricing her on the assumption that she makes the required improvement, and there are several fillies in here who have already achieved substantially more on the track.

SEA OF RAIN is the standout example.

Jim Bolger's filly has had seven starts already so she isn't anywhere near as sexy a proposition as the favourite, but she appeared to take a sizeable step forward when finally given a proper test over a mile in the Group 3 Newtownanner Stud Stakes at the Curragh just 12 days ago.

She raced prominently, took over more than three furlongs from home, opened up a two-length advantage approaching the final furlong and kept finding to repel Ballyskeagh by three-quarters of a length. That wasn't a speculative maiden performance against horses we know nothing about; it was genuine Pattern-race form over tomorrow's exact distance.

Ballyskeagh is admittedly a big danger. She was held up at the Curragh, didn't get the clearest run around two and a half furlongs out and finished very strongly once in the clear. I wouldn't be remotely surprised if she reversed the form.

What interests me is that the market appears to have latched onto exactly that argument. Ballyskeagh is around 5/1 while the filly who actually beat her is still available at around 6/1. I'm not convinced Sea Of Rain is receiving enough credit for making her own race, kicking clear and then having enough left to see off the closers.

Musical Times may ultimately have the biggest engine in the field, but at 7/4 we are being asked to pay to find out. At 6/1, I'll take the filly who has already proved she can win a Group race over a mile.