Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2025 Racing Tips: Best Bet for Sunday 5 October

The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is the ultimate test of class, stamina and strategy, and this year’s renewal at ParisLongchamp looks like a proper classic. Seventeen contenders will do battle on Europe’s biggest stage, with the draw, the ground and the pace map set to decide who emerges as a legend on Sunday afternoon.

There is no runaway superstar in the field, which makes this an intriguing puzzle. The race is littered with talent — Classic winners, international challengers, and seasoned older horses — but in the Arc, the small things matter most. Let’s break down the leading players before landing on the horse who looks the best value bet.

Minnie Hauk arrives with the weight of expectation. Unbeaten this season and supplemented at huge cost, she has already proven herself at the very top level. Drawn in stall 1, she has landed the plum inside berth that has produced countless Arc winners. She is the perfect profile: a three-year-old filly trained by Aidan O’Brien, carrying less weight than her rivals. The only question mark is her price - she looks short in such a deep renewal.

Aventure is the home filly with the devastating turn of foot. Her closing burst in the Prix Vermeille was electric, marking her as a serious Arc player. The snag? Stall 12. From there she risks being shuffled back and forced wide in the straight, and while her talent is obvious, her path to victory has grown more complicated.

Byzantine Dream and Croix Du Nord fly the Japanese flag, but both have been handed nightmare draws in 15 and 17. History shows it is brutally difficult to win the Arc from those gates, however much ability you carry. Of the trio, Alohi Alii in stall 4 looks the most dangerous. He has tactical versatility, has shown he can stalk or press the pace, and with his draw he should get a clean run into the race.

Cualificar is the dark horse. A winner of the Prix Niel, he is thriving at the right time and lines up from stall 8, right in the statistical sweet spot for Arc winners. With William Buick taking the reins, he has the tools to slip into contention and could easily outrun his price.

The one horse who leaps off the page is SOSIE. Stall 3 gives him the perfect starting position to get a cracking position into the race, nestled in the corridor that has produced most Arc winners in modern history. Trained by the master André Fabre - who has already lifted this trophy eight times - Sosie has been campaigned with Sunday in mind, building fitness in the summer and then running a perfect prep when second in the Prix Foy.

That run confirmed he stays the trip, and now he enjoys a massive draw advantage over Byzantine Dream, who beat him that day.

Ground on the easy side of good will not be an issue, and his tactical flexibility means he can sit handy or wait to pounce, depending on how the race unfolds. Add in the fact that he is trading at double-figure odds while others carry heavy market hype, and Sosie looks tailor-made as the best value bet in the 2025 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

The Arc is always a race of high drama and fine margins. Minnie Hauk could yet confirm herself a star, Aventure might fly down the outside, and Alohi Alii is the best Japanese hope from a dream draw. But when you balance class, preparation, position and price, the most persuasive case belongs to SOSIE - the horse with the right draw, the right trainer, and the right set-up to deliver on Europe’s biggest stage. At a massive price if the ground gets testing, I wouldn't be surprised to see White Birch surprise a few and fill the frame.