Chris Baker: Liamba to deliver at Southwell

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Chris Baker's three selections all race at Southwell on Tuesday
Chris Baker's three selections all race at Southwell on Tuesday

Both of yesterday’s selections were placed resulting in a two point loss. Mount Wellington (NAP) looked like an unlucky loser in third as he was denied a clear run, whilst Solar Heights couldn’t quite last home. Both are worth keeping an eye on over the next few weeks.

I’ve picked out three bets for this evening’s racing at Southwell. Good luck if you decide to follow.

Chris Baker's P&L

Southwell Tips

David O’Meara is operating at a 42% strike-rate with his runners over the past fortnight, and his five-year-old mare LIAMBA (NAP at 7/2) goes for a hat-trick at 17:25 following consecutive victories over this course and distance. In all, she’s won three and been placed in seven of her 12 previous starts at Southwell, so she clearly relishes the Fibresand surface. The form of her last win is working out well, so a 2lb rise looks fair.  

I’m siding with another course specialist at 18:55. Trainer Scott Dixon is now based at Southwell Racecourse, so his horses are very familiar with the Fibresand surface. One of his most consistent performers is BREAK THE SILENCE (5/1), who has finished in the first three in 11 of his last 14 All-Weather starts. Three of those runs have resulted in wins - all over this course and distance and including two starts back. He also won here in 2018 and has beaten several of today’s rivals on numerous occasions. He can be forgiven his defeat here last time out as he missed the break before finishing fourth behind a horse that has won again since.

I’m taking a chance on ETERNAL SUN (EW at 25/1) in the last race on the card at 19:25. Ivan Furtado’s runner finds herself well-handicapped following eight defeats in a row. She’s been dropped 3lbs since her last run, which puts her 4lbs below her last winning mark of 71.  That came over this course and distance, and she has also been placed twice here at Southwell off higher marks. She should be well suited by this return to the minimum trip.

Tip

17:25 Southwell
Liamba silk

Liamba

lost

Tip

18:55 Southwell
Break The Silence silk

Break The Silence

lost

Tip

19:25 Southwell
Eternal Sun silk

Eternal Sun (EW)

lost
Today's Racecards
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