Betfair Chase Tips: Gallant Grey Can Take Crown
Grey Dawning could have his coming of age performance on Saturday at Haydock
One of the strongest renewals of the Betfair Chase in recent years is coming to us live on Saturday, the feature of the ITV Racing card. A young pretender heads the market and Billy Grimshaw thinks this is his time to take centre stage...
I've gone back and forth with this race multiple times when closing my eyes and attempting to envisage how it will play out. I suppose the main sticking point is what will the ground be like, with differing forecast sites predicting biblical rain all Friday and Saturday while others think there'll just be the usual showers. I am only a few miles from Haydock myself and have left this piece until last on my Friday of writing in the hope that I can be as informed as possible on the weather, and I can report it has been drier than expected.
With that in mind and in the hope Haydock doesn't do what it so often does, turn heavy, we should be in for a treat! Ahoy Senor usually starts the season abhorrently before gradually picking up to a crescendo at Aintree in the spring, but his first showing this year was much more like it when storming home - he really should have won that day - in the Old Roan to just be denied by Minella Drama. He is the pace angle in here, along with the back to form The Real Whacker, if ridden optimally and if he's in the kind of form he was at Aintree, it's going to be a job and a half for anything to peg him back. Seeing those two joust for the lead early could be fascinating.
The horse I was going to row in with if the heavens had really opened today (Friday) was defending champion Royale Pagaille, who I suspect will go off nearly favourite if the rain is torrential tomorrow. Perhaps he is unfairly labelled a mudlark but he is unquestionably a Haydock specialist and, like a peak form Ahoy Senor from the front, a peak form Haydock Royale Pagaille will be an incredibly tough nut to crack. It could take a special performance, and I hope that is exactly what we see.
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The aforementioned The Real Whacker is probably a smidgen overpriced, along with Hewick especially if the ground does stay with some good involved. However, despite both having run some mighty races in their time, I can see why the two mentioned in the first paragraph are a shorter price considering both of these two horses seem to want the ground on the quicker side. It's surely 50/1 Haydock isn't at the minimum soft. Bravemansgame looks completely gone at the game to me and while Paul Nicholls reaching for the blinkers has been a successful strategy in the past, I cannot see this horse putting it in to win if he is involved come the last few obstacles.
A horse whose heart is certainly not in question after his battling displays to see off Ginnys Destiny last season is GREY DAWNING. Just a few years ago Haydock was treated to a masterful grey dancing around the course in this race season after season in Bristol De Mai, with only a stunning A Plus Tard in his Gold Cup season proving strong enough to stop the Nigel Twiston Davies trained legend. Grey Dawning will probably never hit the rating Bristol De Mai registered in his best win round here, but as of now the world is his oyster as last season's Turners winner and he could well be the one who will relish this test most.
We have seen already in his career how much he can battle and that may be exactly what is needed here if they go the pace one imagines Ahoy Senor and The Real Whacker will guarantee. Grey Dawning's jumping has never been his biggest asset but he does have a deceptive amount of tactical pace so if Harry Skelton is able to keep his mount prominent throughout, I'd be surprised if the rest of the field can go with him after the last as they sprint for the finish. Perhaps it's pessimistic to say, but any other winner barring Grey Dawning would be a bit disappointing for British staying chasing so as well as my betting balance wanting a win for the favourite, my head and heart both want it too!
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