Cheltenham Festival 2024: @RoadCheltenham's Bankers Or Blowouts
With just two weeks to go until the 2024 Cheltenham Festival, the focus is now primarily on those four days in March. There were some nice performances over the past week but the majority of those running this close to Cheltenham will not be heading to Prestbury Park.
So this week, we’re going for a different approach. Instead of the usual weekly review, I’ve looked at some of the leading favourites at the Festival and make a case as to whether they are a BANKER or a BLOWOUT. So, let’s get straight down to it...
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Supreme Novices' Hurdle - Ballyburn
You should never assume with Willie Mullins, but the whispers coming out of Closutton are that Ballyburn will run in the Festival curtain raiser and I can’t see him beaten if I’m honest. He put up one of the performances of the season at the Dublin Racing Festival and he is some way clear of his rivals on official ratings.
He was well backed for the Supreme over the weekend, while he has drifted out to a decent price for the Baring Bingham. He’d win either race but it looks – for the time being at least – like the Supreme is his preferred target.
BANKER
Arkle Challenge Trophy - Marine Nationale
Can Marine Nationale bounce back? Barry Connell thinks he can. Michael O’Sullivan thinks he can. I, on the other hand, do not. While connections opted to blame the ground for his poor run at Leopardstown earlier this month, a wind operation at the end of last season and the application of a tongue tie would worry me.
I understand the angle for forgiving him that run. After all, he is a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner and every horse is allowed a poor run at the end of the day. Having said that, it’s not exactly ideal and I’d be happy to take him on.
BLOWOUT
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Champion Hurdle - Constitution Hill
State Man couldn’t, could he? I’ll be honest, I fancied the upset prior to Nicky Henderson’s media day last week but the Seven Barrows master oozed confidence when speaking about his defending champion and I just cannot oppose him. If we take his comments at face value, Constitution Hill is just one piece of work away from being primed and ready.
I think even Henderson himself would admit that it hasn’t been an ideal preparation for his seven-time Grade 1 winner. The original plan was to run four or five times yet we’ve seen Constitution Hill just once since last April. He’ll still win though.
BANKER
Mares' Hurdle - Lossiemouth
I won’t be laying Lossiemouth for the race, but she’s simply not a betting proposition at the prices and for that reason I am making the argument to oppose her. She’s the most likely winner, but there is one major reason to doubt her: the trip. Yet to run over anything further than 2m1f, she must prove that she’s as effective over 2m4f.
Connections don’t think she’ll have any issue with the step up in trip and some even believe that it’ll bring out further improvement. I’m warming to ASHROE DIAMOND by the day and if Lossiemouth doesn’t quite stay, she can pick up the pieces.
BLOWOUT
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Brown Advisory Novices' Chase - Fact To File
I can’t wait to see how Fact To File gets on over three miles. He’s shown plenty of pace in his previous chase runs, but always shaped like a stayer in his bumper campaign and we could see a huge performance if he improves for the step up in trip. The Mullins camp love him and he’s going to be one of their best chances of the week.
The trip is a slight worry – less so for me than with Lossiemouth. He shares the same sire as Sire Du Berlais and Don Poli, which would give me confidence that three miles won’t be a problem for him. He’s a future Gold Cup contender I’d say.
BANKER
Champion Chase - El Fabiolo
I’ve been a big fan of El Fabiolo since he arrived at Closutton, catching the eye on his debut for the yard at Tramore. He’s gone from strength to strength since his novice hurdle season and is now six from six over fences, winning four Grade 1s over the larger obstacles. He was simply sublime at the Dublin Racing Festival, recording a RPR of 179.
He put Jonbon in his place in last year’s Arkle, but it would be fair to suggest that the Nicky Henderson horse has improved since then. However, I can’t see him reversing the form and I fancy El Fabiolo to give his trainer a third successive win in the race.
BANKER
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Stayers' Hurdle - Teahupoo
I was all in on Teahupoo last season and I was left bitterly disappointed as he was beaten by 11-year-old Sire Du Berlais. It wasn’t Davy Russell’s finest ride, that has to be said, but I thought Teahupoo’s class would see him through. Since then, he finished three lengths adrift of Klassical Dream at Punchestown before beating Impaire Et Passe in the Hatton’s Grace.
If it’s an absolute bog at Prestbury Park on the Thursday, it would be foolish to oppose him but I’d be happy enough to take him on if ‘Good’ is in the going description. To be honest, I’d much prefer his stablemate Irish Point in that case.
BLOWOUT.
Triumph Hurdle - Sir Gino
Sir Gino and Salvator Mundi were the first two juveniles on my radar and I must admit I was more inclined to follow the latter this year after he joined Willie Mullins. However, the vibes were strong around Sir Gino early on – going well against an experienced, former Grade 2 winner in one of his first serious pieces of work at Seven Barrows.
Mullins will chuck plenty at this race, but they’re playing for place money if Sir Gino turns up in the same vein of form he was in when he dispatched Burdett Road in January. I hope he produces another savage performance in the Triumph next month.
BANKER
Gold Cup - Galopin Des Champs
David Casey is often one of the best people to listen to at Cheltenham Preview Nights and he was particularly strong on Galopin Des Champs. I’m very interested to see whether Paul Townend sends him on as he has done in his two most recent starts or whether he holds him up. If he tries to make all from the front, it’ll be some sight.
I’m not a massive Shishkin fan, but he’s got the talent to give Galopin a race. Could you trust him though? Nicky Henderson says he’s treated like a criminal who’s come out of prison and Shishkin isn’t exactly the most reliable type. Galopin wins for me.
BANKER
Mares' Chase - Dinoblue
Last but not least, we have Dinoblue. I backed her at a double figure price earlier in the year. but I wouldn’t be getting involved now. Will she stay the trip? 2m4f on the New Course is going to take her into new territory and a stronger stayer might have enough to fend her off – although she is undoubtedly the most talented horse in the race.
Allegorie De Vassy showed enough the last day to suggest that she still has a major role to play in this race and Paul Townend will be on board. Mark Walsh’s mount is favourite, and rightly so, but there are enough question marks for me to consider alternatives.
BLOWOUT
PERFORMANCE OF THE WEEK
While FERNY HOLLOW was brilliant at Naas on Sunday, I’ve opted to go more left field with this week’s choice and it just so happens that my selection is a likely runner at next month’s Cheltenham Festival.
MR VANGO, trained by Mark Bradstock, absolutely bolted up over 3m6f at Exeter on Friday and connections have suggested that he will take his chance in the National Hunt Chase. He is an outsider for sure but if it’s heavy ground on the opening day, it’ll only enhance his claims.
He won by 60 lengths on only his second chase start and he is very lightly raced for an 8-year-old. He doesn’t have the sex appeal of an EMBASSY GARDENS or a CORBETTS CROSS, but Mr Vango is one I’ll be keeping an eye on over the coming weeks.