Dublin Racing Festival Day One Tips: Four Picks from Leopardstown

Arguably the biggest weekend in the Irish Jumps Calendar is finally here; The Dublin Racing Festival! We cannot wait for the action to kick off at Leopardstown and with Day One promising plenty of thrilling races, Billy Grimshaw is on hand to provide us with his best bets...

13:20 Leopardstown - Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novices' Hurdle

The action begins with an almighty bang at Leopardstown with a Grade 1 race that should prove hugely informative in sorting the wheat from the chaff of potential Albert Bartlett contenders. The first impression I got when looking at the market was in a race of this depth, Predators Gold looked a tad on the short side. He is the chosen mount of Paul Townend and runs in the Gigginstown colours for Willie Mullins, which always gets tongues wagging, but although he may well be the pick of the Mullins squad his staying on second behind Caldwell Potter has been somewhat overegged in the market to my eye. He will undoubtedly prove better over further and is a staying chaser in the making, but Loughglynn looked every bit as smart a stayer when battling well to see off Stellar Story (also in here) at Limerick in a Grade 2 last time out.

One suspects all three horses mentioned will improve for a fence, but one who is perhaps a better proposition in the here and now is the only mare in the field - who will get seven pounds all round - Jessica Harrington's JETARA. She takes a marked step up in grade here but could hardly have won the Grade 3 she scooped last time out in better fashion and she looks to really relish her job. She has shown herself to be versatile tactically within races and with Rachael Blackmore onboard, perhaps the Mullins show will have to wait longer than the opening act to really get rolling.

13:50 - Leopardstown - McCann FitzGerald Spring Juvenile Hurdle

Another enthralling contest awaits in the second race of the day and this time, I am siding with the Closutton clan - albeit not with the one the market fancies most. In similar circumstances to the first race, as much as I respect Storm Heart I cannot have him as a sub 2/1 favourite in a race in which a case can conceivably be made for over half the field. Mullins in fact trains half the field, so even the longest odds of his sextet Ethical Diamond must have a squeak. but although Paul Townend has sided with Storm Heart he is on the record saying how tough the decision was and how he wouldn't be surprised to see anything win this. The favourite's finishing kick was impressive last time out, while stablemate High Wind's manner of victory despite jumping like a wardrobe means there must be a fair engine under the bonnet.

Then there is the small matter of Majborough, a horse many shrewdies on social media fancy after Willie gave him as a dark one at the beginning of the season. He will have to be a serious weapon to win this on stable debut and Irish debut, but the vibes are he just might be. Bunting is another Mullins charge who could be overpriced, but the Closutton inmate I am siding with is actually the mare who finished behind the reopposiing - and thankfully non Mullins entrant - Kala Conti in KARGESE. Watching that race back, I am in no doubt the most talented runner lost that day and I would make any match bet that offers something like evens the pair as strong a bet as I've had for some time if any firm is brave enough to price it up. Kargese won a Grade 3 over in France before transferring to Closutton and one thing is certain, she does not lack gears.

This race looks certain to be run at a blistering speed, which will suit the stalker Kargese and hinder the prominent type Kala Conti in their rematch. Furthermore, Kala Conti now runs off levels with Kargese - both will receive a mares' allowance from the geldings - in here which tips the scales still further in the Mullins mare's favour.  This could be a race all about the finishing speed, so along with Kargese I will be respecting Joseph O'Brien's Intellotto in the double green. If one of the stamina types manages to drag the finish out of a field this strong then they are undoubtedly a Triumph contender, but I think this race will be won with tactical speed and that is Kargese's modus operandi.

15:00 Leopardstown - Race And Stay At Leopardstown Handicap Hurdle

Before this race I am hopeful we see a sparkling performance from Marine Nationale in the Irish Arkle, but he is no betting proposition at current odds. This race is a devilishly tricky handicap to pick the winner in, but one I am reasonably confident will be trained to the minute and will run her race - which should at a minimum be good enough for some place returns - is NINE GRACES for trainer of Marine Nationale Barry Connell. Last time out he was just touched off behind the re-opposing mare Gaoth Chuil over this course and distance, but there is plenty to make one hopeful he can reverse the form here. Firstly, there is a marked swing in the weights with the winner that day now having to give the third a pound when last time they met it was Nine Graces dishing lumps of weight to the mare.

Additionally, the ground was heavy last time out and it will be yielding (if the forecasters are correct) come mid Saturday afternoon. That should play into the hands of Nine Graces, while Gaoth Chuil definitely wants it sloppier. Of course this is by no means a two horse race and I am fearful of the very well backed favourite Fine Margins for Willie Mullins. He was sent off a massive price as a Mullins stable switcher on yard debut at Haydock last time out but still ran a stormer, and he could well have a stone or more in hand of the handicapper. If that is the case the rest are probably all playing for places, but in a big field handicap like this I cannot take 3/1 or shorter about a horse as yet unproven. Congratulations to those who are on at double figures antepost though!

16:10 Leopardstown - Ryanair Handicap Chase

Much like in the handicap previous to this one which I previewed, hopefully beforehand we see a real superstar strut his stuff in Galopin Des Champs. It would be great if he were to win a second Irish Gold Cup with authority and march on to Cheltenham looking the rocket he is. Back in slightly less lofty waters, we have a tricky puzzle for punters to solve in the Ryanair Handicap Chase but it is a race in which I am actually quite sweet on the chances of one at a big price. 

First and foremost, something rare could occur in this race in which I would be relatively pleased were my pick to be beaten by a certain rival. Sophie Leech is breaking with the cowardice of her fellow British trainers in sending over one of her best to Leopardstown, and it would be great if she were to train Madara to glory here. He is deeply progressive and on the back of his latest Cheltenham win must have an outstanding chance in here carrying 10 stone 10 with top jockey in France James Reveley booked in the plate. At five this may well be a tough ask, but he could be a graded class animal in the future and he deserves to head the market.

The price has ebbed away as the week has gone on, sadly, and so I looked elsewhere for a bet and while The Folkes Tiara made place appeal for De Bromhead and Blackmore, the eyes were immediately drawn to GREY DIAMOND for Gordon Elliott. There is still some 20/1 lingering at the time of writing which is a colossal price for a horse who on his best form would laugh at these. Admittedly that was some time ago and he is ten now, and indeed his peak was when with Sam Thomas, however looking at his runs since switching stables I am convinced Gordon has had a big day like this in mind.

On first run for Gordon Jack Kennedy was giving him a patient ride when losing all chance thanks to a faller badly hampering him, while next time out it was a similar story except it was his own mistake at five out that cost him. Kennedy is obviously one of the best in the business, but the switch here to five pound claimer Danny Gilligan means this once high class chaser is now running here off effectively 10 stone 6. Perhaps I have over analysed the race and his form, but if Gordon's plan was to get him well handicapped for a crack at a race like this he has certainly done just that. Now for the tricky part, bringing him back to his best for the target. At 20/1 I am willing to pay to find out if this has been the plan all along.