Hyde Novices’ Hurdle Trends: Why The Favourite Keeps Getting Beaten

Billy Grimshaw goes through 16 years of Hyde Novices’ Hurdle results ahead of Friday’s Grade 2 at Cheltenham, a race that has been a graveyard for favourites and a happy hunting ground for horses who have barely run.

The Hyde Novices’ Hurdle is one of those races that makes a mug of the market more often than not. Favourites have a wretched record, the winner usually turns out to be something we knew very little about beforehand, and this year’s field of ten is stuffed with exactly that sort: six of them have jumped a hurdle in public only once.

I have been through every running since 2010 in the HorseRacing.net database, along with the records of all ten runners, to see what the numbers say about Friday’s 3.30.

Favourites and the betting

The Hyde has been no place for favourites of late. Five on the bounce have been turned over, and two of those were sent off odds-on: Captain Teague at 4/6 in 2023 and Valgrand at 5/6 a year later.

It has not been a race for wild outsiders either, mind. Minella Missile at 22/1 is the only winner since 2010 to go in at bigger than 10/1, so the one to find is usually sitting third or fourth in the betting.

Experience

Last year’s winner tells you plenty about what it takes. No Drama This End had never jumped a hurdle in public when he lined up, bolted up anyway and was a Grade 1 winner before the year was out. That is the type the Hyde keeps throwing up: the horse who has not yet shown us how good he is.

Petersham Place, Woodstock Octo and Ferocimo all fit the bill, each arriving unbeaten after a single run under Rules. At the other end of the scale, Lock Stock and Luck Between Us have 16 hurdle starts between them, which means their form is there for all to see, warts and all.

Last-time-out form

Winning form counts for plenty here, and six of Friday’s ten got their heads in front last time out. I would not be putting a line through the other four on that alone, though. Dallas Star found one too good in a Listed race at Limerick and Lock Stock was third in the Grade 2 Persian War, and both of those are a good deal hotter than the maidens and novices most of these have been winning.

How the race could be run

Lock Stock and Red Acres Georgie both like to bowl along in front and have done exactly that in each of their last three starts over hurdles, while Dallas Star spent most of his Flat career making the running. If that trio take each other on over two miles and five furlongs, something is going to pay for it when they hit the Cheltenham hill.

Waiting to pounce would be Hitintheheadlines and Divine Diva, who were both dropped right out on their hurdling debuts and still came through to win. Just bear in mind that six of the ten have only run over hurdles once, so this map is drawn in pencil.

Running styles

In the Shloer earlier on the card, the horse in front takes some pegging back over two miles. The Hyde is a different game. Over this longer trip against inexperienced rivals there has been no advantage to being handy, and horses ridden out the back have won it just as often as those up with the pace. If the one you fancy is going to be dropped in, do not let it put you off.

Favourites who lead

Here is one for the favourite backers to chew on, because it has happened in each of the last two years. Valgrand was sent off at 5/6 in 2024 and proved a sitting duck for Potters Charm, and 12 months later Heads Up tanked along in a clear lead only to be collared at the last by No Drama This End. If Friday’s market leader is sent on, I would be looking elsewhere.

Age

Ferocimo headed the ante-post betting earlier this week, but he has history to defy as the only four-year-old in the line-up. None of his age group has won the Hyde since at least 2010 and, in fairness, very few have tried. He hacked up at Fontwell on his only start and gets a pound from his elders, so the stat is one to note more than one to fear.

Trainers

Dan Skelton must be sick of the sight of this race. He has hit the crossbar three times, most painfully when Valgrand was turned over at 5/6 two years ago, and is still waiting for a first win. He is double-handed on Friday with Hitintheheadlines and Divine Diva, who also happen to be the two closers on our pace map, so this could be the year it falls right for him.

The Twiston-Davies team finally got on the board with Potters Charm in 2024 after watching three favourites get beaten, and they rely on Ferocimo this time.