Shloer Chase Trends 2026: Jonbon's Cheltenham Gap And A Four-Way Pace Battle

Billy Grimshaw digs into 16 years of Shloer Chase results ahead of Friday's Grade 2 at Cheltenham. The make up and pace both carry more weight than ever in this small field, and the numbers raise real questions for Jonbon as he bids to become the first horse to win it three times.

The Shloer Chase is the feature on the first day of Cheltenham's November Meeting, at 2.20pm on Friday, and it has cut up to a field of just four. Jonbon heads the market for Nicky Henderson as he goes for a third win in the race after taking it in 2023 and 2024, and he is joined by Jane Williams' Saint Segal, Harry Fry's Gidleigh Park and Warren Greatrex's Mighty Bandit.

I have been through every running from 2010 to 2025 in the HorseRacing.net database, along with the full records of all four runners, and two themes jump out. The market has called this race almost without fail, and the way it is run has been kind to one type of horse in particular.

Favourites and the betting

With only four runners on Friday, history all but rules out half the field before they jump off. Short-priced is not the same as safe, though: with two odds-on favourites being stunned in the Shloer since 2010. The latest was of course the returning Jonbon at 5/6 last year.

Blindly backing the second favourite every year would even have been more profitable than just backing the favourite, and is certainly the best angle judging purely by the market data given how poorly outsiders have done in the race over the years.

Jonbon’s course record

Jonbon is a model of consistency as a racehorse, but if he has an Achilles heel it is his Cheltenham record. He does not run badly here, he just keeps finding one too good and three of those defeats came at odds-on here. He never runs a bad race, but he does save the worst of his solid runs for Prestbury Park.

Now he has Father Time to contend with, too. No Shloer winner since 2010 has been older than nine, and runners aged ten or more are 0 from 10 since 2016, so victory on Friday would make him the oldest winner since Well Chief took the first running back in 2009. He could also become the first horse to win the Shloer three times.

Front-runners in the Shloer

Front-runners who were not favourite in this race often flatter to deceive, but unlike in some races when the pacesetters fall out of the back of the TV, in the Shloer they tend to keep going. Thirteen have tried it since 2011 and, while none of them won, ten finished second or third. It is a different story when the favourite goes on, with three of the four who made the running holding on. The one who didn’t was, you guessed it, Jonbon himself last year, and that matters on Friday because, back at the minimum trip, he may try to go wire to wire.

Potential pace

Saint Segal is the one most likely to insist on leading, as he takes a keen hold and has been taken to post early on multiple occasions throughout his career. Taking Jonbon on for the lead is exactly what did for Matata's chances last season, with the Henderson star outbattling him in a jostle for the lead but L'Eau du Sud picking up the pieces and powering away from them both. Jonbon sat just off the lead in his last three runs, but all three were over further than two miles, so does he go forward again back at the minimum trip? If two or three of them go hard, history points to the one sitting just behind claiming Shloer glory, and the most likely beneficiary could be the versatile Mighty Bandit.

Field sizes

Small fields have become the norm for the Shloer, and they change the race. With four runners there is nowhere to hide, so whoever makes the running has a big say in how it unfolds. A short field has not made the favourite a certainty either: three of the last six have been beaten, including Defi Du Seuil, who was pulled up at 6/5 in a four-runner race in 2020.

An eye on the trainers

Nicky Henderson’s record in the race looks formidable, but Jonbon has done most of the heavy lifting: three of the yard’s seven runners were him. Paul Nicholls is yet to taste sweet success in the Shloer.