Irish 2000 Guineas Tips 2026: Gstaad Tough To Oppose But British Raider Can Be Best Of The Rest

The Irish 2000 Guineas takes centre stage at the Curragh on Saturday afternoon and this does look an excellent opportunity for Gstaad to land another major prize for Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore. His Newmarket 2000 Guineas second sets a clear standard and I would not be remotely shocked if he simply proves too good for these.

That said, he is not much of a betting proposition at the prices and I am not convinced this is quite the penalty kick the market makes it look. There is one colt in here with enough raw ability, tactical speed and upside to make this interesting if he gets home over the mile.

The most likely winner of the 2026 Irish 2000 Guineas is Gstaad.

He has the best form in the race, he represents the dominant stable and his Newmarket run was a rock-solid Classic effort. He travelled like a good horse, went clear with the winner and pulled nicely away from the pack, with the winner impressively pulling clear of him, so there is no great mystery as to why he is so short in the market here. If he repeats that form at the Curragh, most of these are probably running for second.

There is also a fair chance he improves again. He shaped at Newmarket as though the run would not be lost on him, he stays the mile, and he has already shown he can operate at the top level. Ryan Moore in the saddle is another obvious positive and this has clearly been mapped out as a very winnable Classic from the moment he crossed the line at Newmarket.

But that is also the issue from a betting perspective. Everyone can see it.

At odds-on, I want very few questions to answer, and while Gstaad is very much the right favourite, this is still a Classic on a different track, against a few rivals who have either got excuses, upside, or both. He can win, and probably should win, but I do not want to be taking a short price about him doing so.

Distant Storm is the obvious danger according to the betting, but he has to reverse Newmarket form with Gstaad and that will not beeasy to do. First-time cheekpieces could help, but he still has plenty to find.

Thesecretadversary is not impossible to forgive either because he did far too much too soon at Newmarket and is surely better than that bare run. If he relaxes, he can be involved, but that is a fairly big if in a Classic over a mile and I am not sure he is being missed by the market.

The one I keep coming back to is ALPARSIAN

He is not bombproof. Far from it. He has to prove he stays this mile and that is the obvious hole in the case. His best form has come over seven furlongs, including when making all in the Greenham at Newbury, and this final furlong at the Curragh could ask a very different question of him.

But I liked the way he won that race. He was professional, straightforward and decisive, and he looked like a colt with a proper engine rather than one who just nicked a weak trial from the front. He also has previous Curragh experience, having won at the track last season, and that is a useful little positive in a race where others are either trying to confirm Newmarket form or put a bad run behind them.

What I like most is that he brings a slightly different shape to the race. Gstaad is the proven Group 1 colt, Distant Storm is the solid yardstick and Thesecretadversary is the one who needs to settle better. Alparslan is the one who could still be better than we have seen, provided the mile is within range.

That is the angle.

If he does not stay, we probably know our fate fairly quickly. But if he does, I do not think he should be this sort of price. I fully accept Gstaad may simply win, but at the prices I would rather be with the Greenham winner to give him something to think about.