ITV Racing Tips: Three Picks For Saturday At Aintree And Doncaster

ITV heads to Aintree and Doncaster on Saturday afternoon, with eight races live including the Molyneux Hurdle and the Virgin Bet November Handicap, and Billy Grimshaw has picked out three selections across the card. One is a progressive young hurdler towards the head of the market who rates his NAP, while the other two are double-figure prices in competitive handicaps.

13:15 Aintree - William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Chase

The ITV4 coverage begins with a two-mile handicap chase for 11 runners, and as I pen this piece on Friday lunchtime the market is dominated by Kadastral at 11/8. I can see the appeal, as Dan Skelton's six-year-old has finished in the first two in five of his six starts and Harry Skelton is riding at a 33% strike rate over the last 30 days. For all that, he has not been seen since finishing fourth at 10/11 at Uttoxeter in March. He was a beaten favourite that day, and he has had wind surgery since. Taking 11/8 about a horse coming back from 238 days off, in a handicap with ten others to beat, is not a bet I want any part of, and I am happy to let him beat me if he is good enough and the Skelton bandwagon rolls on.

Instead, I am siding with BLEU D'ENFER at 16/1 with BOYLE Sports. Donald McCain's eight-year-old got his head in front at Uttoxeter last month, winning at 11/4 off a mark of 120, and that came on the back of a second at the same track in September off 122. He goes up 4lb to 124 for that success, but Harry Brown keeps the ride and his 7lb claim means he carries 11-1 in real terms rather than 11-8. Brown was on board for both of those last two runs, he clearly gets on well with the horse, and he is riding at a 40% strike rate over the last 30 days, so the young claimer is in cracking form himself. BLEU D'ENFER has had 22 days rest since that win, which should mean he is refreshed but still in fine form.

There is a course angle too, as he finished second at 33/1 at Aintree back in May off this same mark of 124, so the track holds no fears for him. The risk is plain enough: he has won only three of his 34 career starts, so he is not a habitual winner and can find one too good. The flip side is that he has finished second ten times, which suits each-way backers rather nicely, and BOYLE Sports are paying three places at 1/5 odds in this 11-runner field. At 16/1 I only need BLEU D'ENFER to hit the frame to get a return, and I fancy he will be right in the thick of it with Brown taking off that valuable 7lb.

15:00 Aintree - Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle

This Pertemps Hurdle Series qualifier over three miles has 14 runners, and Our Guide heads the betting at 3/1 with BOYLE Sports. Jamie Snowden's five-year-old won three on the spin at Exeter, Stratford and Worcester in the spring and early summer, but he has since been beaten at Worcester and then finished third at Chepstow last month off 124, and he races off 125 here, so the handicapper looks to have him in his grips. Snowden's yard is flying at a 32% strike rate over the last 30 days and Jonathan Burke takes over in the saddle, so I would not be shocked if he ran well, but 3/1 is short enough in a race this competitive. Walden and French Ship are next at 6/1, with French Ship having to lump top weight of 12-0 after 196 days off.

My NAP of the day is THE EGYPTIAN GINGE at 7/1 with BOYLE Sports. Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies' five-year-old has won his last three starts, at Ludlow in April, Worcester in September and Market Rasen last month, where he was sent off at Evens and won off a mark of 130. He goes up 5lb to 135 for that, but Mr Jamie Neild's 7lb claim means he carries 10-10 in real terms rather than 11-3, and Neild has been on board for all three of those wins. The amateur is riding at a 50% strike rate over the last 30 days and the stable is going at 23%, so everything about THE EGYPTIAN GINGE is pointing in the right direction, and he has had a nice 21-day break since Market Rasen.

He is a distance winner, so stamina should not be an issue, and at five he is the type who can keep progressing through the winter. The concern is that he has gone up 20lb since that Ludlow win off 115 in April, and at some point the handicapper will catch up with him, while a Saturday handicap at Aintree is a deeper race than anything he has encountered so far. For all that, I would rather be with the improver than the exposed older horses, and this is the one selection I am backing win only, as I think THE EGYPTIAN GINGE is the most likely winner of the race at a price that still has a bit of juice in it.

15:25 Doncaster - Virgin Bet November Handicap

Over to Doncaster, where the November Handicap has attracted 23 runners on soft, good to soft in places ground, and the market is headed by the three-year-old Nobody Knows at 7/2 with BOYLE Sports. Richard Hughes' runner has Ryan Moore booked, which always draws money, but his last two starts read three and five, and 7/2 in a 23-runner handicap over a mile and a half is the kind of price that sends me looking elsewhere. Alfred Wincham is next at 5/1 for Patrick Neville, whose yard is going at a 31% strike rate over the last 30 days, and he deserves respect after winning last time out, but neither of the market leaders is a price I want to take in a race where so many hold a chance.

I am going with SOLARIZE at 16/1 with BOYLE Sports. Charlie Johnston's four-year-old has won his last two starts, at Southwell in September and then at Leicester in October, where he was sent off at 11/4 and won off 89. He has been raised to a mark of 94 for that, but he is a distance winner, he carries a handy 9-2, and he gets the services of William Buick, who is riding at a 32% strike rate over the last 30 days. That is a booking that catches the eye on a horse at this sort of price, and the 32 days since Leicester should have him fresh for one final crack at a big handicap before the turf season winds down. Buick may also have a point to prove, given the Loughnane news this past week.

Most of his best form has come on the all-weather, with wins at Southwell, Wolverhampton and Chelmsford, so the soft ground is the big question mark and I will not pretend otherwise. The Leicester win came on turf, which gives me some confidence, and with BOYLE Sports paying five places at 1/5 odds in a field of this size, SOLARIZE looks a strong each-way play. Plenty can go wrong in a 23-runner handicap, from the draw in stall eight to getting a clear run at the right time, but at 16/1 the price more than covers the risk.