Kingmaker Novices' Chase Runners Guide: L'eau Du Sud A Warm Order

Were this a normal year, L'eau Du Sud would be going to the Arkle at Cheltenham with a right chance given his form, however in 2025 he is set to meet two exceptional five year olds at Prestbury Park. Nevertheless, he will still have some supporters and he has his final run before the big dance on Saturday at Warwick. We've analysed his chances as well as those of his rivals in this runners guide...

1. L'eau Du Sud - Dan Skelton - Harry Skelton - 2/7

This race looks to be at the mercy of L'EAU DU SUD and as a novice who has looked a natural over fences, Warwick is a track that is expected to really play to his strengths with accurate, slick jumping to the fore. He was very high class last season, only just being touched off in a fiercely competitive Cheltenham handicap, and would surely not have been disgraced in the Supreme were team Skelton to have sent him down that route. There does not seem a definite top class challenger in here and as such a distance bet of overs may well appeal to those who are wanting a betting opinion in this race.

2. Riskintheground - Dan Skelton - Charlie Todd - 50/1

The second Skelton runner in the field and by far the least fancied of the duo, it would be a huge shock and one suspects a massive disappointment to his yard were this lad to be even competitive with his more illustrious stablemate. One suspects this was a canny entry from the ever vigilant Skelton with fourth placed prize money up for grabs, and it'll be a case of sit out the back and hope to pick up some pieces for Charlie Todd.

He was in smashing form at the backend of 2024 with four handicap wins on the spin, but then threw in a wretched display in November and has been off the track since. Perhaps he is being teed up for a spring splurge of handicap prizes, but seeing him getting involved in this race is hard to do. 

3. Rubaud - Paul Nicholls - Lorcan Williams - 4/1

The clear second favourite in here, but one I am minded to avoid in the without markets at odds-on considering there are a lot of negatives, Rubaud at least will find this easier than his chasing debut in which he had Sir Gino and Ballyburn (two Cheltenham favourites) to contend with around Kempton. He was set for third that day before a last flight fall but he was in a different parish to the top two and as such it'll be disappointing if L'eau Du Sud isn't able to easily put him to bed.

There are enough doubts about his liking for fences, his mid season switch to the bigger obstacles, his stable form and the ground for me to potentially look at one of the two outsiders in the without markets (more on that later) but on ratings he should be the one to follow L'eau Du Sud home. Expect Lorcan Williams to fire him out from the front but that could play into the rest of the field's hands.

4. Tedley - Nigel Twiston-Davies - Jamie Brace - 33/1

The value in the without market lies with Tedley, for all that the horse is clearly a thinker and likes to do things on his own terms. This is the highest class race he has competed in but he has been a busy boy this season, starting the season with a bang notching two handicap successes before throwing in a few less than efficient performances and being on a bit of a winless run. Last time out he gave rider Jamie Brace a torrid time of things at Ascot, but in a smaller field here he could be happier.

The hope for my tiny bet on him without L'eau Du Sud is that Rubaud disappoints or attempts to win the race and is ground down by the favourite before weakening out of contention, with Tedley hopefully left to do his own thing and allowed to plod on to pinch second. Rubaud's form over fences is also just one run, one fall, so that outcome once again cannot be discounted for a late switching novice.