Lincoln Handicap 2024 Tips: Ball Can Thunder To Glory

One of the biggest flat handicaps of the year kicks off the turf season proper at Doncaster on Saturday; The Lincoln. There are as always a host of well handicapped horses in here and while Billy Grimshaw was tempted to go in double or treble handed, he has landed on just one who looks solid from an each-way perspective...

There are a couple of past Lincoln winners in here looking to regain or retain the trophy. Migration won this contest last season but must become the first horse to defend the Lincoln since 1958 if he is to win, which is a mighty trend to defy. Undoubtedly he has a shot, however he may well struggle now upped in the weights and from a less favourable draw.

Johan won the race in 2022 and looks to regain his title. I'd actually be keener on the champion of two years ago than the reigning winner here, with a solid record fresh coupled with the return of Silvestre De Souza meaning he must be in with a chance. His draw in 12 is another positive and with the ground no bother he was hard to keep out of the staking plan. I couldn't put you off.

Another horse I could put nobody off backing if they like a short one in a race this deep is favourite Liberty Lane. It is interesting to note that Karl Burke did not geld him all last year, indicating they fancied he could well make up into a Group 1 performer. He has now had the cut over the winter and while he is inconsistent - as seen in his Cambridgeshire flop - he had won well just a fortnight earlier in the high class C&D handicap on Leger Day.

Perhaps that took its toll on the Burke runner, but he has not been seen since so comes here fresh as a daisy. If the gelding operation has done the trick he does look the most likely winner on class and ability, but the price has gone now.

Chazzesmee cannot be ruled out and is on a rapid incline of form for Fozzy Stack. He has clearly had his issues but all seems right with the horse now and his win last week in the Irish equivalent of this race on heavy means he must be respected. That was a brilliant pot to win, however this looks tougher and a five pound penalty will not help his cause, for all that the soft ground will.

The horse I am recommending as a bet is one I was determined to keep on side this season following a stunning success to close out his season at Newbury, THUNDER BALL. He was actually a winner a couple of starts before this at Goodwood, but lost the race in the stewards room to the re-opposing The Gatekeeper as the stewards deemed he had hampered the second more than the eventual winning margin. The Gatekeeper gets a weight swing from that day when there was nothing to split the pair, however jockey Alec Voikhansky has his five pound claim which levels the playing field between the pair again.

Thunder Ball's rider is well worth his claim so that is a positive, as well as the upside to the horse's claims. He clearly improved massively at Newbury on that final start of his campaign and although a six pound rise looks fair, I'm of the opinion that win could've been by any margin his rider liked. The style in which this lad glides over the turf when it is soft is typical of Night Of Thunder's off spring and I do think in time we will see him outgrow handicaps and go for Group class races when the mud is flying. 

At double figure odds across the board and (at the time of writing) industry best price with BetMGM, he is a brilliant each-way punt in this competitive affair and hopefully this is a very valuable stepping stone he can use to bigger and better things for Paul and Oliver Cole in his four year old campaign.