Long Distance Hurdle Tips: Strong Chance Leader Takes The Prize
Olly Murphy's Strong Leader looks the obvious play on Friday
Newbury's Friday card is set to be shown on ITV Racing and the feature race of the day is the Long Distance Hurdle, which once again has disappointingly only attracted a small field. With the readiness of some in question, Billy Grimshaw makes the case for the favourite...
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We saw last weekend in the Morgiana Hurdle over at Punchestown that a big field is not a prerequisite for excellent hurdle races, however it is still a shame to see just four rocking up to Newbury for this Friday feature race. The trainers involved have also expressed their disappointment but surely internally they'll be delighted to see just three rivals standing in their way of Grade 2 glory. Flight Deck is the outsider of the quartet and despite running a solid enough race here last season to grab third place, I think the odds compilers have got it correct in making him the least likely winner.
He is at least race fit, unlike the two market leaders, however we know his level and barring a stinker from the other three - there is potential for just that from two of them - he shouldn't be winning this even with the other runners giving him weight. Monmiral is the other runner who has had a run this season, when third in a race over C&D just over three weeks ago. He hardly looked tuned up that day and will surely strip fitter for this, but he is an unreliable beast and even if he runs to the level he produced when claiming Pertemps glory as a 33/1 no hoper in March, he may still struggle to contend in here.
Langer Dan was antepost favourite earlier in the week but with the infamous dual Coral Cup hero liable to run like the worst of drains at the start of his season before seemingly growing wings in the spring - something his trainer Dan Skelton is at pains to insist is just something about him being seasonal rather than an elaborate plan to get back to the Coral Cup each year off a nice weight - he has rightly drifted out. I couldn't have him on my mind for a race at this time of year even at double his price, and if he wins so be it; a new Langer Dan will have been born!
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So that's three of the four runners dismissed and means we are left with 10/11 favourite - a price I actually think looks very good considering how against the other runners I am - STRONG LEADER. A Grade 1 winner after scooping the Liverpool Hurdle at Aintree last season, which was his target and proved a masterstroke from Murphy in terms of skipping Cheltenham and a clash with the beast Teahupoo on soft ground. He ran a career best that day and will surely be aimed on a similar path this season, however his trainer has at least reported that while there are bigger pots to hunt down the line, his horse has been trained for this contest.
Sean Bowen is riding masterfully this season and with no obvious pace angle in here, I'm hoping he takes the bull by the horns and leads with Strong Leader. He was ridden cold at Aintree, which may be the method in which he is seen to best effect, however he is a strong stayer and could get the rest of the field (especially if they're not on a going day) into bother early if he sets some solid fractions. Bowen is a brilliant judge of pace in a race and this is how I envisage the contest playing out, but even if he doesn't go to the front I'd still back him to outbattle the field here.
Depending on the state of Langer Dan, Strong Leader could well go off a much shorter price in this race than the 10/11 available as I pen the preview, so I'd recommend taking the price now. At worst, if Langer Dan is supported I can't see Strong Leader drifting too much whereas I can see him being smashed up in the betting once the markets mature. Hopefully this is a perfect stepping stone to better things for a stayer going places in 2024/25.
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