Long Walk Hurdle Tips: Crambo Can Bounce Back

The feature race on Saturday comes at Ascot and is the Long Walk Hurdle. Despite being done a favour by the favourite last time out in the Long Distance Hurdle, Billy Grimshaw is taking him on in this deeper race...

Strong Leader deserves to be market leader here and is a very solid proposition for Olly Murphy. Indeed, on form at the moment you'd be hard pressed to say Britain has a more realistic Stayers' Hurdle contender, albeit that could change on Saturday if something else from these shores bolts up. His main market rival at the time of writing is Gordon Elliott's The Wallpark, and while he probably has more scope to improve than the favourite I'd rather back Olly Murphy's runner as it's going to be a big leap up in class for this recent JP purchase.

Strong Leader always looked the best horse last time out in the Long Distance Hurdle and once Langer Dan typically started going for a walk on the morning of the race in the market, we knew we were onto a good bet having got the favourite in the book at around 8/11. He is just exactly what it says on the tin; a good staying hurdler who sets the standard and is a benchmark for the rest to get past. The Wallpark has already won on these shores when striding to a Pertemps qualifier win at Cheltenham, but this is an altogether tougher test so despite the horse's confidence boost winning run and his upside at the age of six, I'd want to see him go and do it before backing him for a race like this around the 3/1 mark.

Shoot First is a fascinating contender for Charles Bynres on the back of a heavy ground Haydock success when - judging by the market at least - he was expected to be pulled up. Many smarter judges than me made him value at 7/1 a few days out from the race, but the horse went on a colossal drift out to an SP of 22/1 yet still came home in front. He is obviously talented, but I wonder if heavy ground was the making of him last time out at Haydock and with it forecast to be good to soft at Ascot, he could find a few too good.

Last year's winner CRAMBO is my pick for glory once more at the current prices, with the negatives of his lacklustre spring outweighed by the fact we can get 9/1 about a horse we know acts around this course, runs his best races fresh and is best caught around this time of year. His yard are not exactly blazing a trail in terms of yard form but they are not in crisis mode either, and I fancy we will see Crambo back to his very best for this.

In 2023/24 he announced himself as a stayer of note with a third place - that really should have been at least a second behind the ill fated Slate Lane - up at Haydock in the old Fixed Brush Hurdle, and he kicked on from that in this very contest when just managing to outstay the old warhorse Paisley Park. That race was heavily impacted by Dashel Drasher making it a real test, and without him there is no obvious pace angle in here but I think Crambo could well be sent to the front and attempt to repeat the feat of last year's win, a race in which he was prominent throughout.

His stamina is not in question and while his Cheltenham and Aintree runs in March and April were pretty abysmal, I am willing to forgive him back at a place he loves and in a race we have seen him perform in. His poor spring runs and interrupted preparation are factored into his price here but - perhaps barring The Wallpark and Shoot First who remain unexposed - I think on his very best day Crambo is the top dog in here. It is risky to back one with a profile like this but price is everything in horse racing betting and he is too big considering he could well be the front runner as well, so back Crambo to hopefully give us an early Christmas present at Ascot.