Nunthorpe Stakes Tips: Big Evs Can Send Crowd Home Happy
Will Big Evs land another big sprinting pot?
One of the world's best sprint races comes to our screens on Friday from York in the Nunthorpe Stakes. The weather could blunt the chances of a course record as we saw from City Of Troy in the Juddmonte on Wednesday, but it should still be a thrilling battle between some elite speed balls. Billy Grimshaw has nailed his colours to the mast...
I'm siding with BIG EVS to rectify last season's flop in this race now twelve months on. We can start with the negatives and the first one is of course that unexplained no-show this time last year when he was well fancied to put it up to his elders. He was only a two year old and perhaps it was all a bit much too soon, but still that is an obstacle to overcome.
Another thing in the minus column is the fact he is now on the wrong end of a weight swing with a horse he has had some ding-dong battles with this season in Asfoora, who is favourite for team Australia after her win at Royal Ascot and her narrow loss at Glorious Goodwood to Big Evs. Now to the positives!
Big Evs proved that last season's Nunthorpe was not a track issue when winning with ease on his reappearance here over course and distance and that for me will do in terms of dismissing that potential pitfall. In terms of Asfoora, for all that the late closer should now turn the tables if we are purely going off weights, what we've seen so far this week at York is that those on the front end are prospering over the late closers.
With that in mind I'm sure Tom Marquand will have Big Evs up there throughout the race and he should be able to build up a lead over his main rival that could be tough to rein back in.
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This is no two horse race, with last season's winner Live In The Dream back to defend his crown and one who will definitely be suited by the potential bias for front runners we have seen thus far. His draw in five should be fine and he could give third in 2023 Bradsell the perfect toe into the race with Hollie Doyle in the plate. Whether he is able to be reeled in remains to be seen.
Big Evs is up in 14 which is not ideal, however the manner of his starts when he is on his A game should mean he can overcome this potential disadvantage. He also has Believing and Washington Heights around him who like to get on with things. Live In The Dream is probably the fastest horse out of the gates but he has not been the force of old this season, so if things pan out as I expect at about the halfway stage of the race he could fade away and hinder the group who will be following him.
It'd be a surprise to see Big Evs not leading the far side group at this point and he certainly won't be coming back to the field providing he runs true to form. Asfoora could well be all the rage the more people cotton onto the weight angle, but I'd be happy to see support for the Aussie as it'd mean we get an even bigger price on the home team hero. Anything over 4/1 is a smashing bet.
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