Paddy Power Gold Cup Tips: Derham Switcher Tough To Oppose
In what looks a cracking renewal of the Paddy Power Gold Cup on Saturday, there can be cases made for plenty of the fifteen intended runners. A Grade One winner heads the weights while a host of potentially well handicapped sorts wait in the wings, and Billy Grimshaw has made his selection...
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Throughout the week, despite the trainer's comments to the contrary, the consensus seemed that Protektorat - last season's uber impressive Ryanair hero - would not run here for Dan Skelton with 12 stone on his back to begin his campaign, on good ground too. Nevertheless, the horse is still in and although it is true he may be a late withdrawal if Skelton deems the ground too spicy, if he does run I am not at all ready to discount his chances despite the fact his presence means plenty are running here off a stone and a half less than him.
It is easy to forget just how well Protektorat won that Ryanair back in March, but go back and watch the race again and ask yourself if he comes here in the same form (admittedly that is not a guarantee) will anything be able to live with him, even off a mark of 167? I'm not so sure that even Ginny's Destiny will be able to, and he is as short as 9/4 for this in places. There is enough doubt about both his participation and readiness for this as his big day to put me off making Protektorat the bet, but anyone who got 16/1 each-way earlier in the week is sitting pretty and I'd put nobody off sticking him in their placepots.
Ginnys Destiny as the market leader is a logical place to start and given his form with Grey Dawning last year in some of the biggest novice chases, it's clear to see why he has supporters even at his current skinny price. He is surely better than most of these and Paul Nicholls you suspect would be disappointed if 155 is his ceiling. He will attempt to make all no doubt and that has proved a popular strategy in this race, and indeed all Cheltenham handicap chases recently it seems, down the years. Stablemate Stage Star won the 2023 contest doing just that, but this race looks deeper and while Ginny's Destiny has a big chance, I cannot go near him at current prices.
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GA Law is absolutely rock solid considering he has won both handicap starts at this track, including this race back in 2022, and with Protektorat in the line up he is running off a very workable 11st2. It is hard to forget how easily Protektorat, and indeed the rest of the Ryanair field, brushed him aside back in March however, for all that perhaps he is just a horse who thrives in this sort of big field handicap and will never make his mark at Graded level.
Just as I said I would put no one off Protektorat in the placepot, many people's lock for that style of bet whenever the horse runs at Cheltenham is Il Ridoto for Paul Nicholls, and with smart claimer Freddie Gingell in the plate here I'd be surprised were he not in the first five home. He runs the same race every time at Cheltenham and is a model of consistency, but the vibes are team Ditcheat would be a bit disappointed were he to beat Ginny's Destiny and as such I can't get excited about a place reliant each-way bet at just 7/1.
The horse I'm siding with is one I've warmed to over the course of the week and that is ex- Gordon Elliott trained IMAGINE for Harry Derham. I am not as stats heavy of a punter as some in the racing sphere, however it is impossible to overstate just how impressive the numbers Derham is posting with his stable switchers are. The trainer is operating at a 25% overall strike-rate in handicaps but that number sky-rockets to 57 (yes, FIFTY SEVEN) per cent when we dwindle it down to just those making their first start for the trainer.
Admittedly those handicap wins have not been in races as prestigious or competitive as this, but with profit figures of around 180% to SP for those stable switchers it is impossible to ignore the claims of this classy Irish sort. Some negatives are needed in the interest of fairness, and the main concern for me would be the ground - Imagine has never raced on good. However, he did have a cracking record fresh for Gordon Elliott and that coupled with his mark and the obvious main selling point of Derham's wizardry means I think he is the most likely winner in here.