Chepstow Tips Today: Billy Grimshaw’s Through The Card Selections
Billy Grimshaw takes us through the card on what promises to be a cracking day’s racing at Chepstow for the Welsh Racing Festival, featuring the DragonBet Native River Handicap Chase and the Silver Trophy plus a strong supporting cast. After finding the winner of the Persian War yesterday, our man is in confident mood.
The ground is forecast to be on the softer side, so keep an eye on those with proven stamina. Below, Billy gives his take on every race and where the best betting angles might lie.
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13:35 - DragonBet.co.uk Bet £10 Get £20 Juvenile Hurdle
A tidy opener for the three-year-olds where fitness and fluency matter. Ammes sets a fair standard for James Owen with Sean Bowen booked, and a clean round should put him right there. Treasure Planet looks a likely improver for Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden, with a Flat background to travel sweetly before stamina kicks in late. Ice Jet represents the Skeltons and shapes like one who will settle better with experience.
Matiwo is interesting for Jane Williams if the tempo lifts, while Rosco Rogers and Wolf Rayet appeal more for place claims at this stage of their education.
Selection: TREASURE PLANET
14:10 - DragonBet Real Bookmakers Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
A neat novices’ limited handicap over 2m that should reward sound jumping on a chase course riding good. My Friend Sean looks solid for Tom Lacey with Stan Sheppard, a C&D winner with a tidy profile at this trip. All The Glory represents Jonjo & A J O’Neill with Jonjo Jr and has the scope to improve for fences, while The Kemble Brewery for Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls with Tom Bellamy is interesting fresh after wind work. He is of course one of @RoadCheltenham's British horses to follow!
Starcrossed Lover is reliable for Neil Mulholland and could travel into it. Tintintin for Fergal O’Brien has a mark to work with, and In The Air plus Ben Solo have place claims if they jump fluently.
Selection: THE KEMBLE BREWERY
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14:45 - DragonBet / Native River Handicap Chase
A real stamina test over 2m 7f with thirteen runners declared. The longer trip and testing ground will suit those with reservoir of energy and sound jumping. Light N Strike is a bit quirky but goes well fresh for Mickey Bowen and James Bowen, and could be one to catch early. Pull Again Green has been running well in staying hurdles and may take to fences better than expected, but Destroytheevidence is improving and has a yard that handles big staying chases so looks the one to beat.
Ile De Jersey stays well and could outrun his odds and Neon Moon is consistent over this kind of trip, a master of finding under pressure. Hoe Joly Smoke is also not one to rule out, but in a race named after one of the best grinders we've seen for decades, I do like the favourite.
Selection: DESTROYTHEEVIDENCE
15:20 - Wasdell Group Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle
A deep Grade 3 where class and race fitness count. Knappers Hill tops the weights for Paul Nicholls with Harry Cobden and brings high-end form back over hurdles. Royal Infantry is progressive for Dan Skelton and looks to be running at the right trip now. Joyeux Machin stays well and rarely runs a bad one for the yard while French Ship represents Philip Hobbs & Johnson White with Micheal Nolan and has a quietly upward profile.
Last year’s winner Josh The Boss returns and is handicapped to be competitive again, but hasn't been good since that success. It is a bit of a leap of faith to back him again but Nigel and Willy always start the season hot and this has been the long term plan, so he'll do for me.
Selection: JOSH THE BOSS
16:00 - Paul Ferguson’s Jumpers To Follow ‘Four Years Old’ Hurdle (Limited Handicap)
This four-year-old limited handicap over 2 miles 11 yards shapes as a toss-up between upside and established form. The going is set to ride on the quicker side of good, so any brisk jumper should come into the mix. Aviemore tops the market and carries the aura of being battle-hardened, with a solid profile for this kind of test. Gibbs Island for Tom Lacey and Stan Sheppard has placed in similar company and shouldn’t be dismissed.
Intosomethinggood is progressing well and may benefit from a stronger pace. Gold Fleece has a light mark and could sneak into contention, while Endlessly and Stocking Bay bring each-way claims if they do enough with their jumping.
Selection: AVIEMORE
16:35 - Good Intents Marquee Hire Handicap Chase
This 2m 11y handicap chase for four-year-olds and up looks ripe for a surprise if the favourite slips up. The course will demand sharp jumping and the ability to cope with quick transitions. Thistle Ask is current favourite and solid on paper, but Lightning Flash is the outsider I’m drawn to, a five-year-old trained by Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies with untapped potential over fences. We have already discussed how deadly this duo are early season and he'll do for me.
It's a deep race and both Stroll On By and No But I Will both strike me as consistent types who could run into the frame, while Nevendon cannot be ruled out as he carries a light weight and could give this a real shake if allowed to bowl along up front.
Selection: LIGHTNING FLASH
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17:10 - DragonBet.co.uk Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Hurdle
It wouldn't be a real festival of Welsh racing without Christian Williams getting on the board and I am quite keen on his front running six year old Faded Fantasy to wrap the day up in style here in the finale.
Paddy De Pole is the one I expect to go off favourite and he rates the chief threat with smart Sedgefield form and race fitness on his side, while although he ended last season with a whimper at a big price I wouldn't be in a rush to rule out Idefix De Ciergues for Rebecca Curtis off a long break. There are chances aplenty elsewhere in the field, notably Theatre Of Flight for the Bowens Mickey and James, but Faded Fantasy is the one for me.
Selection: FADED FANTASY
Billy Grimshaw’s Best Bet at Chepstow
The one I like most on the Chepstow card is THE KEMBLE BREWERY. He’s not exactly a dark one but has always looked the type to make a better chaser than hurdler, and the Kim Bailey yard knows how to ready one for a seasonal return.
He’s been schooling superbly at home if connections are to be believed - I've no reason to doubt them - and Tom Bellamy is a good fit to keep him settled early before making use of him late in the race. Fitness shouldn’t be an issue and with plenty of rivals likely to need the run, I think he’ll jump cleanly, travel well and get up the hill no bother. The worry is he could have bigger fish to fry later in the season, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him win here even not at 100%.