Ascot Hurdle Tips: Henderson To Be Feeling Lucky
One of the feature races on a big day at Ascot on Saturday is the Ascot Hurdle, with last season's winner in here ready to clash with the 2024 Mares' Novices' Hurdle winner. Billy Grimshaw likes one of the outsiders and makes the case here...
With just six in here it makes sense to go through the field in odds order, at the time of writing, and that means starting with the surprise Mares' Novices' Hurdle winner at the last Cheltenham Festival Golden Ace. This horse travels into her races like a dream and one suspects were she trained by say a Henderson or Nicholls on this side of the Irish Sea, she would be a good bit shorter than the 9/4 on offer in places about her. As it is, she is trained by Jeremy Scott and has had a few pundits diminish her Cheltenham win as more down to error on the jockey's part from her more fancied rivals.
That day at Prestbury Park it seemed to be all set up for Elliott vs Mullins with Brighterdaysahead and Jade De Grugy in a battle up the Cheltenham hill as they had been in the antepost odds, however while Jack Kennedy and Paul Townend were eyeballing each other it was Golden Ace who snuck past and in the end looked good value for her win. If either of those vanquished horses were in here they'd be odds-on, and there is certainly a scenario where Golden Ace bolts in here and we are all left puzzled as to how we let her go off odds against. Nevertheless, there are enough doubts for me to take her on.
The mare who brushed her aside last season before having to miss Cheltenham with a small injury, Dysart Enos, has come out this season and ran good not great in the Greatwood, which perhaps shows Golden Ace in an unfavourable light, while the manner of Golden Ace's wins and the winning distances would indicate she is perhaps not the world beater she looked like at Cheltenham.
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She certainly won't need to be Grade 1 standard to win this race as her five rivals are not at that level, but Blueking d'Oroux is a solid enough horse and probably still improving. He bolted up in this race last season and you just know Nicholls will have had a defence of the title in mind all summer. There is a worrying trend at the moment of Ditcheat's big boys needing their first run before excelling in their second, which puts me off this lad a smidgen, but I do think he also looks solid enough despite last season getting weight all round and this season needing to dish it out.
Thunder Rock's first time out record is phenomenal, with four wins and a place, and last season was clearly well thought of as he was sent off 3/1 favourite for the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham. While it would be folly to rule out a horse with such a good record on seasonal debut, one cannot help but suspect this is merely a prep run for a big handicap chase and they've chosen this hurdle race to protect his chase mark. He is notably better over fences and at eight is more exposed than most in here.
I'm surprised Salver is available to back at as big as 7/1 considering his smashing run for third in the Triumph, a race which I'm sure will work out, but perhaps the reason he is such a price is the fact he is still just a four year old and juveniles notoriously find this season tricky. The one I'll be backing is the same price and that is LUCKY PLACE for Nicky Henderson, who ran a stormer for fourth in the Coral Cip at Cheltenham despite his stable being under a cloud. That was the last time we saw the horse but before that he had been beaten just half a length by today's favourite, giving her a stone. Here he only has a pound to give away so while there is no doubt Golden Ace has improved, he is a no brainer value bet. The Seven Barrows runner is himself only five and surely has plenty more to come in his career.
The most exposed horse in the field is Colonel Mustard, who seems to have been going around forever but is somehow only nine. He has forgotten how to win but always runs his race and could fill second spot if a few flop here. It's not surprising to see him the biggest price of the lot for win purposes, however.