Breeders’ Cup Day 1 tips: Our best bets for Future Stars Friday at Keeneland

Friday’s Breeders’ Cup card is all two-year-olds, and the Juvenile Turf Sprint at 18:55 UK time is the race where I think the market has it wrong. I've also got two more tips, so stick around and hopefully we can make some dollars Stateside before the weekend truly begins.

18:55 Breeders Cup - Juvenile Turf Sprint

Libertango has the best form in the field and deserves to be favourite, but 6/4 leaves no room for error. FINAL OBJECTIVE is a much bigger price, and his form is not that far behind. He won the Group 2 Flying Childers at Doncaster by a neck from Crownbreaker, and the run before that he was beaten less than a length by Arapaho Gold in the Gimcrack at York. That is solid juvenile sprint form. As an aside, Crownbreaker is 33/1 here and not out of the reckoning.

The Coventry at Royal Ascot is what puts people off. He ran all over the place and it was a poor performance. Gelding him has helped, and James Doyle says he is more straightforward than he used to be, even if he still wanders a little late on.

The race shape should help. Harper’s Corner is likely to make the running from stall 10, and a horse who needs delivering late wants a decent pace in front of him. If it is run that way, double figures is too big. I am happy to take the chance that Doyle can keep him straight.

20:15 Breeders Cup - Juvenile Fillies Turf

Sun Goddess is the 4/5 favourite at the time of writing and Amusingly is next at 4/1, which leaves CURRACLOE at 12/1 looking a fair each-way price in a 14-runner field. She is unbeaten in two starts and has done nothing but improve. She won her Gowran Park maiden on 1 September at 22/1, by five lengths from 16 rivals, then stepped up to Group 3 company in the Darley Fillies Stakes at the Curragh on 27 September.

She was third for much of the seven furlongs, quickened clear late and beat Alpine Wedding by two and three-quarter lengths. Alpine Wedding had been fourth behind her on debut, so the form has held together.

Ground and trip are the questions. The Curragh was heavy, and Keeneland’s turf will be a different test over a mile, an extra furlong on anything she has done. Johnny Murtagh already sees her as a Guineas filly, though, and the way she picked up suggests the extra distance will not bother her. At 12/1 in a race this big, I want the place part of the bet as well as the win part.

21:35 Breeders Cup - Juvenile Turf

AVEC TOI is the one I want to be with at 16/1, and it needs a bit of faith. He arrived at the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère unbeaten, with Group 3 wins in the Prix Francis Boutin and the Prix la Rochette, then finished sixth, beaten 5¼ lengths by Amusingly, who runs earlier on the card. That was a bad day and I am prepared to forgive it.

The catch is that Folsom Blues, Man’s Best Friend and Florida Bay all finished ahead of him at Longchamp and all three are in this field, so the market is entitled to rate them higher. Folsom Blues at 7/2 is fair enough as he was closest to victory.

But 16/1 is too big for a horse who had been winning without being ridden hard, and who has had one bad day at the office, at a meeting that can leave horses stumped for no obvious reason. He looks the type to appreciate a mile stateside, and I would ignore Longchamp at that price.