Ed Quigley: Tizzard to claim Ladbrokes Trophy, as well as a 14/1 Cheltenham Festival tip

Two days of quality action at Newbury are headlined by the Ladbrokes Trophy on Saturday afternoon. Without wishing to sound like a boring and broken robot, the lack rain in recent weeks casts this race in a different light to perhaps what we would normally expect; Newbury have had to water just to take the sting out of the ground, with a dry week forecast apart from a few showers during the two day meeting. All in all, the chances of proper winter ground for this contest look unlikely. If the mud was flying, then Eklat De Rire would be a confident selection as I think he has the perfect profile for this. However, underfoot conditions may just be on the lively side for this proven mud lover so is passed over on this basis. As mentioned in a previous article, I wouldn't be surprised if he improved throughout the season, and if he lined up in a Cheltenham Gold Cup on soft ground, he would have an each-way chance. So regardless of his performance this weekend, he still has the qualities to be a threat in the major staying chases over the next six months or so when conditions dictate.

FIDDLERONTHEROOF represents the rejuvenated Colin Tizzard team who are back amongst the big time, and the seven-year-old gelding looks to have major claims here. He knuckled down nicely to win the Colin Parker on his seasonal reappearance, and second-season chasers have a decent record in this Newbury assignment. Off 150, he shapes as though he will thrive over this trip, and has a touch of class. He ran all the way to the line when chasing home Monkfish in the Festival Novices' Chase so if anything has untapped potential over these distances. The yard are flying and he gets the nod from me.

A day earlier, in what is registered as the Berkshire Novices' Chase, the Paul Nicholls-trained PIC D'ORHY looks to have a cracking chance in receipt of weight from Tea Clipper. The six-year-old has had a bit of a stop-start time of things over fences, but looked in fine fettle when jumping and travelling well at Ffos Las last month to land his first success over the larger obstacles. That experience should hold him in good stead. He won on his only previous visit to the course when landing last year's Betfair Hurdle, and the prospect of some decent underfoot ground will play to his strengths.

Delving back into the Cheltenham Ante-post markets, I was absolutely shocked to see that TELMESOMETHINGGIRL had doubled in price to win the Mares' Hurdle after her comeback at Punchestown recently. Finishing fifth of nine runners, she looked in need of the run, and outpaced on lively ground, before making late headway when trying to concede weight to her rivals. Henry De Bromhead seemed satisfied in the aftermath and said it is a case of "working backwards from the Mares' Hurdle" for the 2022 Cheltenham Festival. In an ante-post market where so many of those priced up around her are either going chasing or have other stated targets, last season's winner of the Mares' Novice Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival looks grossly overpriced.

Advice:

• Fiddlerontheroof, Ladbrokes Trophy, Newbury, Saturday 27th November, 1pt win 6/1 (bet365)
• Pic D'Orhy, Ladbrokes Novices' Chase, Newbury, Friday 26th November, 2pts win 7/2 (Hills)
• Telmesomethinggirl, Mares' Hurdle, Cheltenham Festival, Tuesday 15th March, 2022, 1pt win 14/1