Cheltenham Festival 2025: Townend a rock solid favourite

In four of the last five seasons, the number one rider from Closutton Paul Townend has scooped the top jockey trophy, with the only outlier being 2021 when Rachael Blackmore had a week from the gods to claim the prize. Townend is hot favourite again in 2025 and here we analyse his chances...

Just as it is difficult to make a case to take on Willie Mullins in the top trainer market, Paul Townend more than deserves to be the favourite in the top jockey market and with his trainer Mullins 1/5 and Townend 2/5, there is certainly a case to be made that this is one of the better 2/5 shots around in the sport of racing. Of course, Mullins can fire multiple bullets at each race and while Townend is good, but he's not so good that he can ride two horses at once! There is also the risk to Townend of injury across the week, which (provided he wears appropriate footwear) should not impact the master of Closutton.

Another danger which looks more stark this season perhaps than in the last few is that the rankings at Mullins' yard looks more murky in 2025 than they have for some time. Who is the top novice hurdler? Who is the best juvenile? Which Champion Chase contender is best suited to upset Jonbon? The choices Townend makes in terms of who he rides could have a massive bearing on the top jockey title, with a few wrong picks letting a host of other riders into the conversation.

Nico De Boinville has his detractors but as the top rider at Seven Barrows, he will have an embarrassment of riches to ride including Constitution Hill, Sir Gino and Jonbon so if things fall right for him and wrong for Townend, those backing the 2/5 shot could be starting to sweat. The niggling doubt for anyone wanting to get with De Boinville here is the lack of strength in depth for the handicaps from his trainer Nicky Henderson, while it would be a surprise were Townend not to snag a win on a bit of an outsider from somewhere.

At the start of the season there will definitely have been some shrewdies looking at JP McManus's brilliant team and backing his retained rider Mark Walsh for this gong. The glut of strong staying novice chasers graduating to open company meant plenty fancied a green and gold Gold Cup winner, however we have seen how good Galopin Des Champs still is and as such the hype around JP's crew has somewhat diminished. He still has a strong hand and could well have the favourite in the Triumph, Turners, Supreme and Ryanair (as well as plenty of strong handicap chances) but it will take a week where everything falls right one suspects for Walsh to claim his maiden top Cheltenham jockey title. It is also a blow he won't ride green and gold Champion Chase favourite Jonbon.

Outside of the leading trio in the market it is very tough to make a case for anyone being able to usurp Townend, with Patrick and Danny Mullins looking likely to bag a winner or two apiece on the Closutton second and third strings but surely not having the luck to be on the right one each and every time without the benefit Townend has of first dibs. Harry Skelton will not have enough firepower riding solely for brother Dan and one of his big chances The New Lion has recently been bought by JP so could see him jocked off.

Harry Cobden is a wizard in the saddle and could well bag another winner but it'll be on one at double figures as his trainer Paul Nicholls is certainly not the Cheltenham force of old, while Rachael Blackmore will not have enough ammunition and is not riding at her best as she was in the glorious 2021 season. The Gordon Elliott first string rider, be that Jack Kennedy or Sam Ewing, could be a smidgen of value at 14/1 nearer the time, although like any number on this list it would take the stars aligning for them to be worrying Townend come Friday afternoon.

Despite the dangers of injury and not picking the right horses in a confusing sort of season at Closutton, Townend looks rock solid in here. If forced into a position, Walsh looks better value at double the price of De Boinville but everyone has a job on to stop Townend going four in a row,