Cheltenham Tips Today: Three Sunday Picks Including A Southern National NAP

Billy Grimshaw's Cheltenham tips for Sunday take in two races from the final day of the November Meeting, with his NAP coming in the Southern National at Fontwell. He has gone back over all three this morning after non-runners and a quicker surface at Cheltenham. The Greatwood Hurdle has its own preview, and selections for the rest of the meeting are on our Cheltenham tips page.

The ground has moved since I first wrote this on Friday. Cheltenham has been watered but is now good, good to firm in places, while the chase course at Fontwell is good to soft, good in places. ITV3 shows six races and I have left the Greatwood to its own preview, which still leaves plenty to go at. Two of my three bets lean on the November Meeting trends I put together this week, and the other comes from a staying chase at Fontwell where the market has tightened up considerably since Friday.

12:50 Cheltenham - mallardjewellers.com Maiden Hurdle

Made In Reugny, who was jostling for favouritism on Friday, is a non-runner along with Old Habits, which leaves 12 runners and Mourne Crystal as a 5/2 favourite. I am happy to take him on. He was beaten at 4/7 in a Class 4 novice hurdle at Ffos Las on his only start, and Ben Pauling has had one winner from 52 runners at this meeting since 2016. Favourites have a poor record in the novice and maiden hurdles here as well, winning only seven of 30 since 2016, so 5/2 about a horse with one defeat to his name does not appeal.

WOLF RAYET has the best form in the race by a distance. He was fourth in the Grade 1 juvenile hurdle at Aintree in April, beaten under six lengths, and he also ran in the Triumph Hurdle in March. On official ratings he is 133, 8lb clear of the next highest in the field, and he ran here in December when fourth in the Triumph Trial without getting a clear run. That is a different level of form from the Class 4 races most of these have contested, and while the 4/1 I had on Friday has gone, 11/4 is still a fair price for a horse with that much in hand on the book.

He is still a maiden after five runs, he has been off for 220 days, and he is always held up, which is not ideal in a 12-runner race, as only four of 53 hold-up horses have won two-mile novice hurdles with ten or more runners at these autumn meetings. Four-year-olds have a modest record in these races too, although last year's winner Soldier Reeves was a four-year-old who came from off the pace at 14/1, and this still looks a soft maiden for a horse who has been chasing Grade 1 juveniles all year. WOLF RAYET is an each-way bet with firms paying four places.

13:05 Fontwell - StoneX Southern National Handicap Chase

Jeu d'Opale was favourite on Friday and is now a 9/2 chance for Venetia Williams, who won this race with Cloudy Glen in 2020, but I still think he is the weakest of the market leaders. He has never raced beyond two and a half miles over fences, he weakened late when tried at three miles over hurdles, and he is 9lb higher than for his only chase win, which came on heavy ground in a Class 4. Add a 274-day absence and he is one I am happy to oppose. Mask Of Zorro has taken over as the 7/2 favourite, for what that is worth in a race where favourites are 0 from 6 since 2020.

The one I want is PAPER MILL. He won over three miles and three furlongs at Market Rasen on 25 October, beating Livin On Luco by 18 and a half lengths, and that is the horse who won this race last year. Livin On Luco is 11lb better off today once his rider's claim is taken into account, but that still leaves PAPER MILL well clear on the book. He has won off 107, 112 and 117 in the past year and now runs off 122, so the handicapper has been chasing him, and his wins have come on good, good to soft and soft ground. Charlie Hammond, who has ridden him in every one of his races under Rules, keeps the ride.

Age is against him. He is ten, and the last six winners of this race were all aged seven or eight. He has never run at Fontwell, where the tight figure-of-eight chase course does not suit every horse. And his last two wins came in four-runner races, so this is a much tougher test. Even so, at 9/2 he sits right in the 3/1 to 13/2 range that every winner of this race since 2020 has come from, and with Livin On Luco, Mask Of Zorro and Call Me Legend all likely to want the lead, he should get a lead into the race. PAPER MILL rates my NAP, each-way with firms paying four places.

14:35 Cheltenham - Oddschecker Handicap Chase

Havaila was the 3/1 favourite on Friday and has drifted out to 7/1 this morning, with Double Powerful now heading the market. He has won his last three, including the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown in April, and he is a progressive stayer, but I have two doubts about him here. He has never run at Cheltenham, and he is always held up, which matters in a race where the front-runners have done so well. Only one favourite has won this race in the last ten runnings, and since 2017 the horse who made the running has won three times and been placed eight times from nine runners. On good ground in 2018, 2021 and 2024, the winner made the running each time.

That makes ASK BREWSTER the obvious one for me. He will lead, he has won both of his starts at Cheltenham, over this course and distance in April 2025 and in the Kim Muir at the Festival in March, and both of those wins came on good ground. On a line through Road To Home, whom both he and Havaila have beaten narrowly, there is little between him and Havaila at level weights, and he gets 4lb from him today. In a nine-runner race on this ground, that front-running style is a big asset.

The concern is his last run. He was beaten 27 lengths in the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown in April, but he was taken on for the lead throughout and he has had a break since. The ground at Sandown was good to firm in places, which is also how Cheltenham is described this morning, so I am leaning on the pace explanation for that run rather than the going. Monbeg Genius and Double Powerful could try to go with him early, and both the trainer and jockey are short of winners at the moment. With only three places on offer, each-way is not worth the extra stake, and at 6/1 ASK BREWSTER is a win bet.