Paddy Power Gold Cup Tips 2026: Back 50/1 Riskintheground For An Upset

Billy Grimshaw has been through the field for Saturday's Paddy Power Gold Cup and is happy to take on the favourite Meetmebythesea, who has four of the race's strongest trends against him. His best bet is a nine-year-old at 50/1 who is in the form of his life, and there are selections for the rest of the meeting on our Cheltenham tips page.

I am writing this on Friday afternoon with the ground at Cheltenham good, good to soft in places, and with the course watering to keep it that way. Fifteen go to post for the 2.20pm and the market is headed by Meetmebythesea at 3/1, with Blueking d'Oroux and Quebecois both 11/2. I went through every running since 2013 for our Paddy Power Gold Cup trends piece, and the short version is that this has been a poor race for favourites. Stage Star in 2023 is the only market leader to win it in the last 13 runnings, and five of the other 12 did not get round. That alone does not mean the favourite gets beaten this time, but it does mean I want a good reason to take a short price.

I cannot find one with Meetmebythesea. He has won three of his four chases and was impressive in the novices' limited handicap at the Festival in March, and Harry Cobden rides, so I understand why he is popular. But he is the wrong side of four trends at once. Horses who won last time are 0 from 36 in the last ten runnings, six-year-olds and younger have won once from 36 tries since 2016, only one winner in ten came from within 5lb of the top weight, and he has been off for 247 days. He may well be good enough to beat all of that, but at 3/1 I am not prepared to find out.

Blueking d'Oroux is the one Harry Skelton has chosen from Dan Skelton's three, and his second in a Grade 1 novice chase at Aintree in April reads well off a mark of 148. Against that, he has not run for 219 days, this is his first run for the yard, and he has made mistakes in most of his chases. Quebecois will probably lead, which has been a big help in this race, and Paul Nicholls has won it three times since 2013. The problem is that he is 0 from 7 over fences and his best form, including his third in the Ultima, has come over three miles or more. Two and a half miles on good ground could find him out, and I would not want to be taking 11/2 about either of them.

Madara is the one I fear most. He won the Plate over course and distance in March by seven and a half lengths, he was fourth in this race two years ago, and he has had a run over hurdles at Carlisle to put him right. He is beaten last time and has had a run this season, which puts him on the right side of the two strongest trends, and at 9/1 he is fair enough.

My worries are that he has gone up to 11st 11lb, inside that 5lb window below the top weight, and that Harry Skelton has preferred Blueking d'Oroux. July Flower won the Arkle Trial on this card last year, but she is making her handicap debut, and Irish-trained runners are 0 from 20 in the race since 2013.

The one I want is RISKINTHEGROUND, the third of the Skelton runners and the biggest price of the three by a distance. He has had the best season of his career. He came from the rear to win the Grade 2 Silver Trophy over two and a half miles at Haydock in April, beating Zurich by a neck, and followed up in the Perth Gold Cup in June. He was then third at Uttoxeter, and on his latest start he finished third in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby at 28/1, staying on from last over three miles on good ground. That was a Grade 2 against some smart staying chasers, and it is as good a piece of form as anything in this field has put up this autumn. He has also won over two and a half miles here, beating O'Moore Park in April 2025.

He fits this race better than his price suggests. Nine-year-olds have won four of the last ten runnings from only 26 runners, horses carrying between 6lb and 10lb less than the top weight have provided four of the last ten winners, and he is beaten last time and has had a run, the two trends Meetmebythesea fails. Dan Skelton won this race last year with Panic Attack, also a nine-year-old held up off the pace, and six of his ten runners in it since 2013 have finished in the first four. Harry Atkins takes 5lb off, which brings his 11st 5lb down to 11st, and good ground is the key to him. His wins at Haydock and Perth both came on good, while his worst runs this year were on soft or heavy ground at Cheltenham, Newbury and Ffos Las.

The risk is the way he races. He is always held up, and horses held up early have won this race only twice from 51 runners since 2017, with front-runners doing much better in this race and in the handicap chases at this meeting as a whole. He was also beaten a long way by Madara in the Plate, although he was staying on when he was badly hampered by a faller at the last. With Quebecois and Blueking d'Oroux likely to take each other on up front, though, there should be a strong enough pace for something coming from behind, and 50/1 is too big for a horse with his recent form. RISKINTHEGROUND is my each-way bet, with four places on offer at most bookmakers and five with some, and Madara is the chief danger.