Paddy Power Gold Cup Trends: Can Meetmebythesea Defy A 0-From-36 Record?

Billy Grimshaw goes through 13 years of Paddy Power Gold Cup results ahead of Saturday’s big handicap at Cheltenham, where the favourite has two of the race’s strongest trends against him.

The Paddy Power Gold Cup has been a poor race for favourites and a worse one for horses who turn up having won last time. Meetmebythesea heads the betting for Saturday’s renewal and he is both.

I have been through every running since 2013 in the HorseRacing.net database, along with the records of all 15 runners, to see what the numbers say about the 2.20.

Favourites and the betting

Stage Star at 4/1 in 2023 is the only favourite to have won the Paddy Power Gold Cup in the last 13 runnings. Five of the other 12 failed to get round, including Ginny’s Destiny at 3/1 two years ago.

That does not make it a race for outsiders. Ten of the 13 winners went off at 10/1 or shorter and Splash of Ginge, at 25/1 in 2017, is the only one bigger than 14/1. Second favourites have won three times since 2013, so the one to find is usually sitting just behind the market leader.

Last-time-out winners

This is the stat of the race. In the last ten runnings, 36 horses lined up having won their previous start and not one of them won. Every winner in that time had been beaten last time out.

Plenty of the 36 were well fancied. Protektorat was the 11/2 favourite when second in 2021, Al Dancer the 5/1 favourite when third a year earlier and Mister Whitaker the 6/1 favourite when fourth in 2018. They ran well enough, but the handicapper had already had his say and a horse who had been beaten came out on top each time.

Meetmebythesea won the novices’ handicap at the Festival on his last start and has not run since. O’Moore Park won over course and distance last month at 25/1, and Torneo has won his last two.

A run this season

Eight of the last ten winners had already had a run that season, and horses making their seasonal debut are two from 54. I would not treat it as a rule, mind, because the two exceptions are recent. Stage Star and Panic Attack, two of the last three winners, were both having their first run since the spring.

Four of Saturday’s field come here fresh: Matata, Meetmebythesea, Johnnywho and Blueking d’Oroux. Seven have run since the start of October, including Madara, who had his prep over hurdles at Carlisle a fortnight ago.

How the race could be run

Quebecois has led in each of his last three starts over fences, including when third in the Ultima at the Festival, and Sam Twiston-Davies will surely send him on again. Blueking d’Oroux raced up with the pace at Kempton and Aintree in the spring, so he should be close by.

Meetmebythesea made much of the running when he won here in March, but he came from last to win at Ayr in January, so he has options. At the other end, Norn Iron, Riskintheground, Dunkerque and O’Moore Park are all usually dropped in, and O’Moore Park came from last to win here in October.

Running styles

Being at the head of affairs has been a big help in recent years. Since 2017, three of the 11 horses who led early went on to win: Baron Alco, Midnight Shadow and Stage Star. Coole Cody was in front from the third fence in 2020 as well. Horses who raced in midfield have won once from 47 tries in that time.

The fields are part of it. This used to be a cavalry charge of 17 to 20 runners, but there have been no more than 15 in any of the last four years, and a horse who gets to the front in a smaller field is harder to peg back.

Age

Four of the last ten winners were nine, which is some return given only 26 nine-year-olds ran. Younger horses have found it much harder. Ga Law in 2022 is the only winner aged six or under from 36 to try since 2016, and nothing aged ten or older has won from 12.

Johnnywho, Riskintheground and O’Moore Park are the nine-year-olds this time. Meetmebythesea, Torneo and Dunkerque are six, and Guard Your Dreams is the one ten-year-old.

Weight

Taquin Du Seuil carried 11st 11lb to win in 2016 and he is the only winner in the last ten runnings to come from within 5lb of the top weight. Frodon and Protektorat both finished second from up there, so class horses do run well. They just tend to find one too good at the weights.

Matata is top weight on Saturday, with Madara, Meetmebythesea and Johnnywho all within 5lb of him.

Horses who have run in it before

This is a race horses come back to and run well in again. Il Ridoto was fourth in 2022, third in 2023 and won it in 2024. Ga Law won in 2022 and was second two years later, and Johns Spirit followed his 2013 win by finishing second a year later.

Madara is the one with that profile on Saturday. He was fourth at 16/1 as a five-year-old in 2024 and has since won the Plate at the Festival over this trip. He was also beaten last time and has had a run, so he is on the right side of both form trends, though he is one of those near the top of the weights.

July Flower has a different sort of course form. She won the Arkle Trial on this card last year, and the three winners of that race to run in the Paddy Power Gold Cup afterwards finished first, third and third.

Trainers

Paul Nicholls has won two of the last three runnings with Stage Star and Il Ridoto, and three since 2013. He relies on Quebecois, who is still looking for his first win over fences after seven tries but has been second in four of them.

Dan Skelton won it for the first time with Panic Attack last year and six of his ten runners since 2013 have finished in the first four. He has three this time in Madara, Blueking d’Oroux and Riskintheground. Jonjo O’Neill, who runs Johnnywho, has won it twice from seven runners in that time.

The Irish have a poor record. None of their 20 runners since 2013 has won, though French Dynamite was second in 2022 and Lets Go Champ third in 2024. Henry de Bromhead runs July Flower and Zurich, and Paul Nolan sends over Release The Beast.