Cheltenham November Meeting Trends

Trends and statistics for Cheltenham’s November Meeting at Prestbury Park, covering favourites, front-runners, age, trainers and jockeys at the last ten meetings. Updated each year after the meeting.

Cheltenham’s November Meeting is the first proper test of the jumps season and, with 19 races crammed into three days, there is no shortage of puzzles to solve. To help, I have been through every one of the 186 races run at the last ten meetings, from 2016 to 2025, in the HorseRacing.net database. That is 1,924 runners in all, and the aim was to find out who wins here and how they do it.

A lot of it told us nothing we did not already know, so I have stuck to the handful of trends I think are worth having in your head when you open the racecard.

November Meeting Favourites

Favourites win a shade over a quarter of the races at this meeting, 57 from 200 since 2016, and you would be £38 down to a £1 stake had you backed the lot, which is about what you would expect anywhere. Where it gets more interesting is when you split them up by the type of race.

In the non-handicap chases, the likes of the Shloer and the Arkle Trial, the market leader has obliged almost half the time and the odds-on shots have been close to bankers, winning ten times from 13. Over hurdles it is a very different story. Favourites in the novice and juvenile hurdles have won fewer than one in four, and four of the six sent off at odds-on were turned over.

Paddy Power Gold Cup And Greatwood Hurdle Favourites

If you are planning to side with the favourite in either of the meeting’s big handicaps, look away now. Stage Star in 2023 is the only market leader to win the Paddy Power Gold Cup in the last ten runnings, and five of the other nine did not even complete the course. More Of That, Kylemore Lough, Slate House, Stolen Silver and Ginny’s Destiny all failed to get round.

The Greatwood has been no kinder. Alexei obliged for favourite backers in 2025, but he was the first to manage it since at least 2016.

November Meeting Outsiders

There is a limit to how far down the betting you need to look, mind. No winner at the last ten meetings has gone off at bigger than 33/1, and the 223 runners sent off at longer odds than that have all been beaten.

Four winners have scored at 33/1 and, if you like a big price, three of them came in the same race: the novices’ handicap hurdle run on the Friday. Red Hot Chilly, Lively Citizen and Mc Alpine all won it at 33/1 between 2018 and 2021, and Contrapposto followed up at 28/1 a year later.

Front-Runners At The November Meeting

This is the one I would have on a Post-it note for all three days. Horses who make the running at this meeting win more than three times as often as those held up at the back, and it is not simply because the best horses tend to go forward. Even after allowing for their prices, front-runners have won about half as many races again as the market expected, and backing every one of them since 2017 would have returned a profit of £64 to a £1 stake.

The catch, of course, is that you have to work out who is going to lead before the tapes go up, which is why our previews of the big races come with a pace map.

Front-Runners In Handicap Chases And Hurdles

There is an important caveat, though, and it concerns the two types of handicap. Over fences, going from the front has been a cracking tactic: 13 of the 40 handicap chases since 2017 were won by a horse who led, including three of the nine Gold Cups in that time through Baron Alco, Midnight Shadow and Stage Star.

Try it in a handicap hurdle and you are far more likely to be swallowed up. Only three of the 44 handicap hurdles in that time were won from the front, although, interestingly, two of those were Greatwoods: I Like To Move It in 2022 and Burdett Road in 2024.

Age Trends In The Handicap Hurdles

The handicap hurdles here belong to the five-year-olds. They make up about a third of the runners in those races and have won 28 of the 49 run since 2016, which works out at well over half. The six-year-olds, by contrast, have a dismal record with just eight winners from 181 runners, and nothing aged nine or older has won one from 59 attempts.

It is worth bearing in mind for the Greatwood on the Sunday, where six of the last ten winners were five-year-olds.

November Meeting Trainers

Dan Skelton has been the man to follow at this meeting with 17 winners since 2016, three more than Paul Nicholls and six more than Nicky Henderson. It pays to be choosy with his runners, though. Seven of Skelton’s 15 runners in non-handicap chases have won, but just one of his 21 in handicap chases has come home in front.

Nicholls has a blind spot of his own, having drawn a blank with all 20 of his handicap hurdlers, while Henderson’s winners have been well found in the market: none of the 24 he has sent out at 10/1 or bigger has won. One yard heading in the right direction is Joe Tizzard’s. He has had five winners from just 15 runners since taking over the licence from his father Colin, and went three from three in 2025.

Trainers Still Waiting For Winners

Not everyone enjoys this meeting. Ben Pauling has saddled 52 runners here since 2016 and just one of them has won, although seven finished second or third, so it has not been for want of trying. Venetia Williams is still waiting after 19 runners, and even Gordon Elliott has only one winner to show from the 18 he has brought over.

November Meeting Jockeys

It will surprise nobody that the riders attached to the big yards lead the way. Harry Skelton has ridden 16 winners at the meeting since 2016, every one of them for his brother Dan. Harry Cobden is one behind on 15, and Nico de Boinville has ten, nine of them for Nicky Henderson.

The stat that jumped out at me belongs to Sam Twiston-Davies. He has ridden six winners from 34 rides over hurdles at the meeting, but only one of his 25 mounts over fences has won.

Frequently Asked Questions About Cheltenham November Meeting Trends