Arkle Trial Trends: Can Old Park Star Win On His Seasonal Debut?

Billy Grimshaw goes through 16 years of Arkle Trial results ahead of Saturday’s Grade 2 at Cheltenham, where a Supreme winner making his chasing debut and a Relkeel winner could swap favouritism more than once before the off.

Saturday’s Arkle Trial is a rarity: two top-class horses heading the market, with next to nothing between Old Park Star and Kabral Du Mathan in the betting on Thursday. Old Park Star won the Supreme in March and has never been beaten over hurdles, while Kabral Du Mathan won the Relkeel here on New Year’s Day, ran in the Stayers’ Hurdle and has already had a spin over fences. Either could be favourite at the off, and the order may change plenty before then.

I have been through every running since 2010 in the HorseRacing.net database, along with the records of all seven runners, to see which of the pair the history of the race favours.

Favourites

Favourites have won eight of the 16 runnings since 2010, and the short ones have been bombproof. All five who went off at odds-on won, most recently L’Eau du Sud at 10/11 two years ago.

The record is very different when the favourite has been evens or bigger. Only three of those 11 won, and the beaten ones include River Wylde at evens, Fusil Raffles at 11/10 and JPR One at 6/5. That is the catch this year. With the two so close, the favourite may well go off at around evens or bigger, and whichever one it is, the market is telling you it is not sure. In this race it has paid to listen.

The rest of the betting

You might expect the second favourite to pick up the pieces when the market leader is beaten, but it has rarely worked out like that. Second favourites have won only twice from 18 since 2010, and none has been shorter than 6/4, so a second favourite of this class is new territory. Five winners came from fourth or lower in the betting, and three of those were the outsider of the entire field: Ghizao in 2010, Put The Kettle On in 2019 and Homme Public in 2023.

None of them was a wild price, mind. Fields are small and nothing has won at bigger than 13/2, which is a concern for everything outside the front two on Saturday. Workahead was third in the betting on Thursday.

Recent form and chasing experience

Eight of the last ten winners had won their previous start and the other two had finished second, so this is no race for a horse with something to prove. Five of Saturday’s seven won their last start over jumps. Passing Diamond was second over course and distance last month and Workahead was turned over at 1/3 at Roscommon in June.

The more interesting stat concerns Old Park Star. Nine of the last ten winners had already had a run that season, and Lalor in 2018 is the only one in that time to win it on his first run of the season. Old Park Star has not been seen since the Supreme and has never jumped a fence in public, whereas Kabral Du Mathan made all to win his beginners’ chase at Perth last month at 2/9.

Age

Eight of the last ten winners were six, and the other two were five. Nothing aged seven or older has won from 16 runners since 2016, which is not what you want to read if you fancy Newtown Rambler, who is seven, or the eight-year-old Workahead.

Old Park Star, Kabral Du Mathan, Passing Diamond and Putapoundinthejar are all six. Folie Golith is the only four-year-old and just two of her age group have tried since 2016, so there is not much to go on. What we do know is that mares won it in 2019 and 2025, and as a four-year-old filly she gets 15lb from the rest.

How the race could be run

There will be no hanging about. Newtown Rambler has made all in each of his last four wins over fences, Passing Diamond has led in all four of his chases and Folie Golith made every yard at Uttoxeter last month. Workahead likes to be in front too.

That should suit the two market leaders, who can both sit just off the pace. Old Park Star raced in second when he won the Supreme, and although Kabral Du Mathan made the running at Perth, he was ridden with more patience over hurdles. Putapoundinthejar, the Galway Hurdle winner, is the one who will be held up.

Running styles

Twelve of the 15 winners we have in-running data for either led or raced prominently, and only one of the 18 horses held up has come through to win, Eldorado Allen in 2020. Two miles around the Old Course is a sharp test and it is hard to make up ground on novices who are jumping at speed.

Leading is not without its risks either. Gumball in 2020 and JPR One in 2023 were both in front and going best when they departed late on, so with four who want to lead on Saturday, the two sitting behind them look best placed.

Trainers

Dan Skelton has had four runners in the Arkle Trial and three of them won: North Hill Harvey, Third Time Lucki and L’Eau du Sud. The other, Be Aware, was second last year. Kabral Du Mathan carries that record on Saturday.

Nicky Henderson’s is the opposite. He won it with Captain Conan in 2012, but three of his last four runners were sent off favourite at 11/8 or shorter and all three were beaten. One of them, River Wylde, went down at evens to Skelton’s North Hill Harvey. That is the record Old Park Star has to put right.

Henry de Bromhead has won two of the last seven runnings with the mares Put The Kettle On and July Flower, and he runs Workahead.

Field size

Seven runners counts as a crowd in this race. The average field since 2010 is five, there were only three in 2017, and just two runnings in that time have had seven or more. For what it is worth, the favourite won both of them, Al Ferof at 5/6 in 2011 and L’Eau du Sud in 2024.

What it means for the Arkle

The name suggests this is where you find the Arkle winner, but it has not been a reliable guide. Eight of the 16 winners since 2010 went on to run in the Arkle that season and only Put The Kettle On won it. Eldorado Allen was second at 33/1 and Al Ferof, Dodging Bullets and L’Eau du Sud were all fourth.

It has been a better pointer to the following years. Dodging Bullets and Put The Kettle On both won the Champion Chase later on. Al Ferof is the one for Old Park Star’s supporters to note: he also arrived here as the Supreme winner, won at 5/6 and was then only fourth in the Arkle at 3/1. Our Cheltenham tips cover the rest of the meeting.