Cheltenham Friday Tips: Three ITV Racing Picks For The November Meeting

Billy Grimshaw has spent the week going through ten years of results from Cheltenham's November Meeting, and he puts those numbers to work on Friday's ITV Racing card. He has three selections on day one at Prestbury Park, including a NAP in the veterans' chase and an each-way player at a double-figure price in the Hyde Novices' Hurdle. Picks for the rest of the three-day meeting are on our Cheltenham tips page.

I am writing this on Thursday afternoon with the ground at Cheltenham good, good to soft in places, and four races on ITV to go at on Friday. One of them is the Shloer Chase, where only four go to post and there is little to get stuck into from a betting point of view, so I have left that one to our Shloer Chase trends piece. The other three all offer a bet. Each of the selections below leans on something that turned up when I went through all 186 races run at this meeting between 2016 and 2025, and the full findings are on our November Meeting trends page.

13:45 Cheltenham - Paddy Power Novices' Chase

The withdrawal of Derryhassen Paddy has taken the likely favourite out of this Listed contest over three miles and a furlong and left six. King's Bucks now heads the market at around 7/4 for Henry de Bromhead and I can see why, as favourites have won 18 of the 37 non-handicap chases at this meeting since 2016. He is short enough for a horse who has yet to win a race under Rules, though. He was pulled up in the Albert Bartlett here in March and found one too good on his chasing debut at Galway last month, and while he may well prove the best of these in time, 7/4 about a maiden is not for me.

Intosomethinggood has solid recent form after his third at Aintree last Friday, but he jumped out to his right there, this comes just a week later, and Sam Twiston-Davies has ridden one winner from 25 rides over fences at the meeting since 2016. The one I want is KINGSTON NARCISSUS. Dan Skelton has been the leading trainer at the November Meeting in that time and his record in the non-handicap chases is the standout part of it, with seven winners from 15 runners. This horse has not been out of the first three in five starts over fences and went down by a neck in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen in July, which is as good a piece of chase form as there is in this field.

He was sent off 11/8 favourite for a Premier Handicap at Wetherby a fortnight ago and could finish only third, but the way he was outpaced before keeping on again up the run-in over two miles and three furlongs told me he wants further. He gets it here. The risk is obvious, because he has done all his chasing at up to an extended two miles and five furlongs and Harry Skelton tends to drop him in, which is not ideal at a meeting where it pays to be handy over fences. In a field of six that is less of a worry, and the general 4/1 I see as I write is fair. With only two places on offer, KINGSTON NARCISSUS is a win bet for me.

14:55 Cheltenham - Jilly Cooper Veterans' Handicap Chase

If you take one thing from the trends work, make it that front-runners are the ones to be with in handicap chases at this meeting: 13 of the 40 run since 2017 were won by a horse who made the running. The trouble with applying that here is working out which of them gets to the front. Glengouly made all to win the December Gold Cup over two and a half miles here last season, Ga Law, Mahons Glory and Time To Bite all like to lead, and Thunder Rock and Outlaw Peter are usually in the first two or three. That is six of the eight who want to be on the pace, and they cannot all have it.

That leaves the race set up for something ridden with patience, and TRIPLE TRADE is the obvious one. He came from the rear to lead in the final strides of a veterans' chase at Market Rasen last month, with Ga Law back in fifth, and he knows his way round here. He won the two-mile handicap chase on the Sunday of this meeting 12 months ago, when he collared Glengouly on the run-in. That was one of three winners from three runners for Joe Tizzard at the 2025 meeting, and the trainer has had five from 15 at the fixture since taking over the licence from his father. Harry Cobden, who has ridden 15 winners at the meeting since 2016, takes the ride.

There is a case against him and it is Outlaw Peter. Paul Nicholls's runner gave TRIPLE TRADE 11lb and finished in front of him at Haydock in April, and he gives him only 9lb here. But Outlaw Peter has been off for 212 days, he will be in the thick of that battle for the lead, and favourites have won only 12 of the 56 handicap chases at this meeting since 2016. At around 4/1, TRIPLE TRADE rates my NAP of the day. Mahons Glory is the one I fear most at 10/1 if he is allowed his own way in front, as he was fourth in a Grade 2 at Sandown in April and has more class than most of these.

15:30 Cheltenham - Hyde Novices' Hurdle

I went through 16 years of this race for our Hyde Novices' Hurdle trends piece and the short version is that the market gets it wrong more often than not. The last five favourites have all been beaten, two of them at odds-on, which is a worry for anyone taking 3/1 about Ferocimo. He could hardly have won more easily at Fontwell, but he is the only four-year-old in the field and none of that age has won the Hyde since at least 2010. Thirteen of the 16 winners in that time were five-year-olds, and since 2016 those who won last time out have a far better record than those who did not, with eight winners from 39 runners against two from 35.

Dan Skelton runs two five-year-olds who won last time and Harry Skelton has sided with the mare Divine Diva, who is 4/1. She is the pick of @RoadCheltenham in his horses to follow for the meeting, and we are on the same page in wanting to take on the favourite with a Skelton runner. Where we differ is the price. HITINTHEHEADLINES is around 10/1 and I am not convinced there should be six points between them. He won a Chepstow maiden hurdle over two miles and three and a half furlongs the day before she won over the same course and distance, coming from the back of the field to lead at the last, and the step up to two miles and five should suit a horse who finished like that.

The way the race is likely to be run helps too. Lock Stock and Red Acres Georgie have each led in their last three starts and Dallas Star made the running for most of his Flat career, so there should be plenty of pace for a closer to aim at, and held-up horses have won the Hyde at the same rate as those ridden handy. I should be straight about the negatives. Skelton has had eight runners in this race since 2010 without winning it, Tristan Durrell's mount is the stable's second string on jockey bookings, and only one winner in that time has gone off at bigger than 10/1. With three places on offer, though, HITINTHEHEADLINES is worth an each-way bet at the price.