ITV Racing Tips: Three Each-Way Bets For Cheltenham And Windsor
Billy Grimshaw has three each-way ITV Racing tips for Saturday, two from day two of Cheltenham's November Meeting and one from Windsor, with his NAP in the three-mile handicap hurdle at 2.55pm. The Paddy Power Gold Cup has been covered in our trends piece, and there are selections for the rest of the meeting on our Cheltenham tips page.
I am writing this on Friday afternoon with the ground good, good to soft in places at both Cheltenham and Windsor, and with seven races on ITV4 to choose from. The obvious one is the Paddy Power Gold Cup, but I went through 13 years of that race for our Paddy Power Gold Cup trends piece and I am happy to leave it there. The Triumph Trial has nine runners and the Arkle Trial seven, which is no place to go looking for each-way value, so all three bets come from big-field handicap hurdles. Two of them lean on the November Meeting trends I put together this week, and two of my three selections ran in the same handicap hurdle at Cheltenham last month, which looks the key form for both.
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13:25 Windsor - Fitzdares Handicap Hurdle
Kildinan Prince heads the market at 9/2 for Emma Lavelle, whose horses are running well and who has had three winners from ten jumps runners at Windsor since jump racing returned to the course. I can see the appeal of a lightly raced seven-year-old making his handicap debut off 120, but he has been off for 237 days, and the Exeter maiden hurdle he won was a three-runner affair in which he was sent off at 1/25. His second in a Class 2 novice hurdle at Ascot before that is the better form. Even so, 9/2 is short enough for a horse with that much to prove first time back in a 15-runner handicap over three miles.
I would rather take a chance on THANK YOU MA'AM at 12/1. He has the best recent form in the race. He was second at 40/1 in a Class 2 handicap hurdle over three miles at Chepstow last month and then fourth, beaten six and a quarter lengths, in a 19-runner Pertemps qualifier at Cheltenham on 24 October, where he led from the eighth and was not headed until before the last. That was a Class 2 off this same mark of 124, and he drops back to Class 3 here. He stays three miles well, he has won and placed plenty of times on good ground, and his best course form is at Ascot, another right-handed track. He is a front-runner too, which looks an advantage here, because only two of the 47 held-up runners in hurdle races at Windsor since jump racing came back there have won, although that is a small sample.
The risks are plain enough. He has not won in nine starts since December 2024, he is 6lb higher than for that last win, and he has top weight of 12st. He will not have the lead to himself either, as Mount Anglesby made all at Newton Abbot last time and Bold Endeavour likes to go forward, so he could be taken on early. For all that, he showed at Cheltenham that he can lead in a big, strongly run handicap and keep going, and the form of that run has a solid look, because Gold For Alec, who finished five lengths in front of him in second, is my NAP later in the afternoon. With four places on offer, THANK YOU MA'AM is an each-way bet.
Thank You Ma'am (EW)
14:55 Cheltenham - From The Horses Mouth Podcast Handicap Hurdle
The key piece of form for this three-mile handicap hurdle is that Pertemps qualifier over course and distance on 24 October, and it does not flatter the favourite. Ace Of Spades is 9/2 for Dan Skelton, who has had more winners at this meeting than any other trainer since 2016, but he finished only tenth that day, beaten 17 and a half lengths, on his first run for 196 days. He may well come on for it, and Harry Skelton rides, but he carries top weight of 12st and I want more than the promise of a fitter horse to back him at 9/2. Rambo T is another I am happy to take on, as he is nine, and none of the 59 runners aged nine or older in handicap hurdles at the November Meeting since 2016 has won.
GOLD FOR ALEC was second in that Pertemps qualifier at 28/1, beaten a length and a quarter, and he finished more than 16 lengths in front of Ace Of Spades. He was getting 18lb from him that day and gets 14lb here, so he is 4lb worse off, but that still leaves him well clear of the favourite on the book. He came from midfield, made headway from three out and kept on well up the run-in, which is what you want to see from a horse heading into a three-mile handicap here. A fortnight before that he was two lengths down in third when he fell at the last at Chepstow, so that is two good runs in a row, and he has already won over further than this at Hereford. Good and good to soft suits him well.
The concern is that both of his wins came at Class 4, and Gavin Sheehan, who takes over from Caoilin Quinn, has ridden one winner from 38 rides at the November Meeting since 2016. Neither puts me off. He has already shown he can run a big race at Class 2 against a big field over course and distance, he has a recent run under his belt where several of these do not, and six-year-olds have won three of the last ten runnings of this race. Most bookmakers are paying five places, and at 5/1 GOLD FOR ALEC rates my NAP.
Gold For Alec (EW)
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15:30 Cheltenham - Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle
Moneygarrow is a warm order at 15/8, and @RoadCheltenham has him among his horses to follow for the meeting, believing he could be well treated off 133. I can see the case, but I cannot have him at the price. He has been off for 246 days, he weakened quickly from the last when eighth in the Albert Bartlett in March, and he has never won on anything quicker than good to soft. He is also a six-year-old, and the handicap hurdles at this meeting have belonged to younger horses: five-year-olds have won 28 of the 49 run since 2016, while six-year-olds have managed eight winners from 181 runners.
Five-year-olds make up more than half of this field, and the one I want is DAYLATEDOLLARSHORT. He won the Silver Trophy at Chepstow on his return last month, and before that he was beaten only half a length in the Albert Bartlett Triple Crown Final, a big-field handicap at Punchestown in April. That is the best handicap form in the race. He goes up in trip to two miles and five furlongs, but he has won twice at that distance or further at Wetherby, he has won on good and on soft, and he is usually ridden in midfield. That matters, because Sunny South West, Hillberry Hill and Seamoon Story all like to be up there, and front-runners have won only three of the 44 handicap hurdles at the meeting since 2017.
I should be straight about the Chepstow win. He was left in front at the last when the leader fell two lengths clear, so the bare result flatters him, and the handicapper has still put him up to top weight of 12st. Olly Murphy has also drawn a blank with his 13 handicap hurdlers at this meeting since 2016, and favourites have a good record in this race, winning five of the last nine runnings. But he had just moved into second when he was handed the race, he has kept progressing, and at 5/1 against a favourite I do not want, DAYLATEDOLLARSHORT is an each-way bet with four places on offer.