ITV Racing Tips: RaceOlly's six best bets from Haydock, Beverley and Chester on Saturday
RaceOlly has been through the ITV Racing card on Saturday and put up six tips across a busy afternoon at Haydock, Beverley and Chester...
1.45 Haydock - Nomadic Empire
Nomadic Empire improved with every run last season ending particularly strongly when winning twice in four days and finishing a close fourth in the 21 runner sprint trophy at York. Was carried across the track that day and was a little unlucky not to get closer still and was even more unlucky on return at Ripon last month when badly hampered in the finish and doing remarkably well to grab third in the circumstances.
That effort came after a 196 day break and a gelding operation and understandingly went off 11/2 fav for a 22 runner Class 2 handicap at York at the start of the month but yard was unhappy with the ground which was definitely softer than the official going of good, further proven with soft ground loving winner Dakota Gold landing the spoils.
Ground on Saturday will be more suitable and has huge potential at a big price of 14/1 with Betfair paying each-way down to four places.
2.05 Beverley - Star Of Lady M
Star Of Lady M went off odds on favourite for the Lily Agnes last time but Chester is very much a specialist track and it didn’t look to suit so she ended up a disappointing last. Write that run off with the track as a likely excuse though and she’s hugely over priced here on the promise of novice wins at Ripon.
Return to a straight five furlongs track here will suit and front running style will be a big advantage in this. David O’Meara is always worth a look at around Beverley with a 18% win rate over the last five years and especially worth noting when Daniel Tudhope rides who himself has a 22% win rate around here in that time.
Paddy Power go best price 8/1.
Havana Grey horses have good strike rates on better ground (35% win rate on good ground) and a fantastic 25% win rate already with two year olds.
2.40 Beverley - Flame Of Freedom
Flame Of Freedom is over priced and catching the eye in this. Last two runs have come with excuses, the first over a mile where she was bang there in a listed race before tiring late on and being beaten three lengths.
Last time she got upset in the preliminaries and also lost a shoe and the run was a total write off. Lost a shoe on season debut off this handicap mark also when narrowly beaten a head by one completing a three timer and won three times last season all over this trip and twice in similar conditions.
Eve Johnson Houghton very rarely makes the 400 mile (over seven hours) round journey to Beverley and brings the two here tomorrow, both worth a look on that reason alone. Jockey Charles Bishop has a 30% win rate when riding here over the last 5 years also.
William Hill go best price 18/1.
3.15 Beverley - The Ridler
The Ridler took a nice step forward from debut last time out at Ripon when winning nicely and catching the eye as a potential nice sort despite not beaten much. Trainer Richard Fahey has won this race three times in the last 17 years (two in the last 10) and has sent out three winners from 17 runners here already this season.
This stiff five furlongs should suit and yard are having a fantastic season with their two year olds, boasting a 21% win rate.
Bet365 go best price 10/1 about its chances here.
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3.30 Haydock - Spycatcher
Two horses with similar profiles caught my eye here with Misty Grey a potentially decent angle but Spycatcher was all around stronger and made more appeal in this.
Four year olds have won five of the last eight renewals of this and Spycatcher ran a career best last time out when second in a Group 2 at York.
Karl Burke is having a fantastic time of things lately and this season has a 17% win rate, two of those wins and a 25% win rate comes here at Haydock. Karl Burke also has a 24% win rate in Class 1 non-handicaps this season and two from eight in those races with horses four and older.
Spycatcher is already proven at this level with the only time he finished out of the places in group races coming on unsuitable soft ground.
William Hill go best price 6/1 for a horse that's seen support overnight.
3.45 Chester - Oh This Is Us
This is a tricky one as did like and could make a small case for outsider Spirit Of Light but one that has everything going for him and is hard to ignore is Oh This Is Us.
Previous course form and a low draw is always worth noting at Chester and Oh This Is Us won a listed race and a Group 3 at this time last year and was rated 22lbs higher.
Course form reads 11213, one of those wins was at Listed level and the other two in handicaps off marks 13lbs and 16lbs higher than he has here.
Paddy Power are best priced 6/1 paying each-way terms down to four places.
Richard Hannon has a 20% win rate at Chester over the last 5 years a figure that rises slightly to 23% when factoring only his older horses. Age is no concern on bits of recent form and also on previous winners of this race, from six renewals we’ve seen a eight year and two seven year olds win it. All previous winners were rated in the 90s and all had a recent run so plenty of boxes ticked.
