ITV Racing Tips: A Trio Of Each-Way Picks
ITV Racing has a busy Saturday ahead with action from Wetherby, Ascot and Down Royal, and Billy Grimshaw has left the feature races to their own previews to go hunting for each-way value in the handicaps. He has swerved the market leaders and found a veteran in a tight Wetherby handicap, a progressive chaser at Ascot and a consistent hurdler in the biggest field of the day.
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13:10 Wetherby - Position Payout At bet365 Handicap Chase
I am writing this on Friday afternoon, and the first thing to say about the 13:10 at Wetherby is that it is an eight-runner handicap with only six pounds covering the whole field, which makes it exactly the sort of race to look at each-way. Palamon heads the market at around 5/2 to 3/1 for Dan and Harry Skelton, but I cannot get away from the fact that he was a beaten favourite when second last time and he has been out of the first three in three of his last six starts, so I am happy to take him on. Tanking Along has won his last two for a yard in cracking form and looks the one to beat on that evidence, but I would rather find a price.
That leaves LADRONNE, who is the one for me at the 22/1 on offer. He is 12, so there is no hiding the fact that age is against him, but he is a course and distance winner who ran second on his latest start, and he has not been seen for 200 days, which is the sort of break a veteran is often given to freshen him up. He runs off 120, only three pounds below the top weight, and he is partnered by Oscar Palmer, whose 7lb claim brings his effective weight down to around 10st 12lb. In a race where the whole field is rated between 117 and 123, that is a significant edge and it is not being reflected in the price.
I am not blind to the risks, because a 12-year-old who has been off for the best part of seven months needs to be fit first time out and there are one or two in here with better recent form, so he could easily trail in. But this is an eight-runner race with three places on offer at a fifth of the odds, and at 22/1 I only need him to run his race to get a good run for my money. The Charlie Hall Chase follows later on the card and has its own preview, so I have left that one alone.
Ladronne (EW)
14:00 Ascot - Sodexo Live! Handicap Chase
The Sodexo Live! Handicap Chase is a Class 2 prize worth over £50,000 and the market has a clear leader in Vanderpoel, who is 9/2 with most firms. He is a fair horse, but he has been off the track for 234 days, he has had a wind operation since his last run and he finished seventh when last seen, so there is plenty for a seven-year-old to prove on his return. Teddy Blue and Martator share top weight of 12st, and at 17/2 and 8/1 respectively they are short enough for an eight-year-old and a nine-year-old who have both been away for more than six months.
I would rather side with GORE POINT, who rates my NAP of the three at 10/1. The six-year-old has won five of his last six starts, including his latest outing 33 days ago, and he runs off 133, which is 11lb below the top weights and gives him a nice cushion in a race where the best of the market have a few questions to answer. He is trained by Anthony Honeyball, whose runners have a 38% strike rate over the last month, and Sam Twiston-Davies, who has been riding well, takes the ride. Four places are available at a fifth of the odds with some firms, which makes the price very tempting.
Honeyball also runs Brookie and Gabriel's Getaway, so the stable has three chances, and I have gone with the one who is in the best form by a distance. The risks are plain enough, because this is a big step up in class and a prize of more than £50,000 for a horse who is no doubt higher in the weights than he was a few starts ago, and the stable could easily have a better chance with one of the others. But I am happy to take that on at 10/1. The Regal Encore Handicap Chase follows at 14:33 and I have covered that in a separate preview.
Gore Point (EW)
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15:43 Ascot - Lavazza Handicap Hurdle
The Lavazza Handicap Hurdle is the biggest field of the day, with sixteen runners over a couple of miles and a prize of more than £32,000, and the market has Trustintimes at the head of it at 4/1 to 9/2. He is a course and distance winner for Harry Fry, but he has been off for 204 days and was out of the first ten on his last run, so I am happy to take him on. Williethebuilder has to carry top weight of 12st off a mark of 140 at around 9/2 to 5/1, which is short enough for a horse with that burden, and I would rather look further down the weights for a bigger price.
That brings me to GOWER PRINCE, who is 10/1 with the best of the firms. The eight-year-old has finished first or second in each of his last five starts, including a win 20 days ago, and he runs off a mark of 114, which puts him right at the foot of the handicap with only 10st 2lb to carry and a 5lb claim from Benjamin Macey on top. Jonjo O'Neill's yard has a 23% strike rate at the moment, and in a field of sixteen there are five places available at a fifth of the odds with some firms, so a horse who is as consistent as this one will do nicely for me.
The worry is that a Class 2 handicap at Ascot is a big step up from the sort of races he has been winning, and a horse at the bottom of the weights needs a clear run in a big field, so he could easily get tapped for toe if the pace is strong. But I have always liked a lightly weighted, in-form horse in a handicap like this, and at 10/1 I am happy to take the chance. The Down Royal Champion Chase is the race that follows at 15:15 and has its own preview.