Lincoln Handicap Tips: An each-way angle into first big flat handicap

The Lincoln Handicap could look very different to recent renewals in 2025, with a dry forecast meaning the word 'soft' may not be in the description at all. Billy Grimshaw has cast his eye over the big field and previews the race before making a case for one at an each-way price...

You never expect to look at the Lincoln and solve the race without a lot of hours of study, but the 2025 renewal looks an even trickier proposition to crack to my eye given the drying conditions mean we cannot really use the last few renewals as much of a barometer of how the race will pan out, given they were run on soft or worse ground.

The last four renewals (there was no race in 2020) have served up winners in stall 2, 12, 4 and 10, which goes against the prevailing wisdom at Doncaster that a high draw is advantageous, and this gives us an idea of where to hone in on because those high often end up going too hard and spoiling their chances jousting for the lead too far out.

I like Thunder Run as a horse and feel confident he'll have some big days this season, but I am not keen on his draw in 19 given he likes to lead and could have plenty around nipping at his heels. He may simply be too quick for them all and scorch away, but if he does that this'll be his last ever handicap run considering he'll be tasked with doing it off near top weight and at the prices with my concerns I can leave him alone.

Wathnan Racing are well represented with the second and third in the market, and in a match I'd certainly be with Midnight Gun over Native Warrior, with the latter having a poor run here on an otherwise good record and having stall 21 to deal with. Midnight Gun looks to have more upside and is the choice of James Doyle, and he was very close to being the selection truth be told but I swerved for something bigger given his price has contracted a few points in recent days.

If I am correct, Richard Hughes is going to have a very nice day out indeed at Doncaster and Kempton on Saturday as I am more than happy to take some of the 16/1 each-way that plenty of firms are dangling about WHIP CRACKER. I like to see a horse have a prep run for this race unless they are clearly the sort who performs best fresh, and Whip Cracker looked to me the best horse in the field at Wolverhampton in a trial for this last time out when just a length back in fourth. I'll word this carefully as obviously we do not want to be casting aspersions, but to say it looked like the team were not too downhearted that their lad had not won the race but ran well would be fair and considering he met plenty of traffic, was positioned right at the back and finished full of running he looks to have been prepared perfectly for this contest.

He is still only a lightly raced sort and with Thunder Run the obvious one in here who could win and wave goodbye to handicaps, I do think there is potential this Cracksman gelding could do the same. A few negatives are the ground, with his sire producing more and more mudlarks, although it would be unfair to say this lad doesn't handle good in the description, and the fact he can dawdle a bit out of the gates. Hopefully with his middle draw here he will break alertly safely in the pack of runners and Finley Marsh can nurse him into the race before coming with a winning run. 

I'll be disappointed if he doesn't end the season better than a mark of 97 anyway, and with Hughes' four year old looking a much improved proposition since being gelded midway through last year I'll put faith in the team that this has been a long term target and back him to upset a few of the more fancied runners.