Melbourne Cup Tips 2026: Soft Ground Angle Points To A British Raider

The Melbourne Cup lights up Flemington in the small hours of Tuesday morning, and Billy Grimshaw has been through all 24 runners with the track expected to turn soft. For once he is happy to side with the market leader, and explains why a British-trained raider with the ground in his favour is the one he wants to be with.

The Melbourne Cup is the race that stops a nation, and it is the one every racing fan in this country sets an alarm for, because the Group 1 handicap over two miles at Flemington goes off at 3pm in Melbourne, which is 4am here in the UK. There are 24 runners and the northern hemisphere raiders have a better record than they used to, with Cross Counter winning for Charlie Appleby in 2018 and Joseph O'Brien taking the race with Rekindling and Twilight Payment. Last year's winner was Half Yours, and this time Ciaron Maher has seven runners, O'Brien has five and there is a strong British and Irish challenge, although Defiantly, who was O'Brien's main hope, has been ruled out.

The thing that matters most this year is the ground. Flemington was Good 4 on Sunday morning, but there is rain forecast for Monday and track manager Liam O'Keeffe is talking about a Soft 5 or Soft 6 on Cup Day, with showers clearing on Tuesday. That changes a race over two miles considerably, because a soft surface puts a premium on stamina and the ability to handle the ground, and it will suit some of these a good deal more than others. A wide draw is not the handicap it looks in a field this big, as the distance gives plenty of time to find a position, so I am more interested in who will stay and who will handle the surface than in who has been given the better gate.

I am happy to take on Point Of Law, who has been popular in the market. The four-year-old was bought from King Charles in August and he has been an eye-catching addition to the Maher team, winning the Geelong Cup on his first start in Australia after being fourth at Royal Ascot and winning the Bahrain Trophy. He runs off 53kg, which includes a 2kg penalty, from barrier nine, and he may well be the best horse in the race, but this is a lightly raced horse who has never run beyond a mile and a half, and the Geelong Cup is four furlongs shorter than this. Stepping up that far is a big ask, and I would rather look elsewhere.

The Joseph O'Brien pair are the obvious alternatives. Trustyourinstinct won the Curragh Cup over a mile and three-quarters and was fourth behind Scandinavia in the Irish St Leger, so he has the stamina and he is best when held up for a late run, with James McDonald in the saddle. The problem is that he carries 57kg from barrier 18, which is not an ideal combination. Sons And Lovers is top weight on 57.5kg and has won over 3,000m in Saudi Arabia and 2,800m in Paris, and he drew barrier three, but he was only second in the Kilternan Stakes on his final prep and giving weight away to this field is a tall order.

In behind them there are plenty who deserve respect. Juja Kibo is a big hope for Ciaron Maher after winning the Metropolitan and the Moonee Valley Cup, beating several of these rivals, but he has to prove he stays this far. Enfjaar was third in the Caulfield Cup for Roger Varian and has won five of his 17 starts, so he is a solid type, although the extra distance is a question for him too. So You Are has won four in a row, including the Bendigo Cup, and he is comfortable on a wet surface, but he has yet to face company anything like this, and I would be wary of taking too short a view of a horse who has been winning against lesser horses.

That brings me to HOPEWELL ROCK, who is the one I want to be with. George Boughey's five-year-old won a handicap at Goodwood and was then beaten only a short distance in second in the Ebor at York, which is a proper stamina test run at a strong pace and exactly the sort of race that tells you whether a horse will stay a long way, and he has the profile of a horse who is improving as the trip gets longer. He carries 54.5kg, a very reasonable weight in this field, and Zac Lloyd takes the ride from barrier 15. Most importantly he handles rain-affected ground, so the prospect of the track turning soft is a plus for him rather than a concern, and with so many of the market leaders having questions about the trip I like his chance. I have left prices out because the market is still moving ahead of the off, and the live odds in the widget above will show you exactly where he stands before you decide.

I am not blind to the risks, because they are plain enough. He has not had a run in Australia, which is unusual for a runner in this race, and he has never been tested over 3,200m, so he could well find the distance beyond him once the ground gets heavy. A barrier in the middle of the draw means that Lloyd has to decide early where to settle, and a slip in the early stages could leave him with too much to do. There are old hands with claims as well, with Vauban placed in the last three runnings and Goodie Two Shoes second last year, but I am happy to side with the raider who has the form and the ground in his favour. HOPEWELL ROCK is my selection for the Melbourne Cup.