Royal Ascot Friday Tips: Three Best Bets For Day Four

We are now past the half way point of Royal Ascot and while the end is in sight, there are still a raft of brilliant races to enjoy on Friday. Billy Grimshaw has once again had his nose in the formbook and makes the case for his three best Day Four bets..

15:05 Royal Ascot - Commonwealth Cup

Time for a bit of honesty here, I am on favourite SHADOW OF LIGHT at bigger prices antepost for this race. Has that clouded my judgement? Potentially, but I'd like to think my critical thinking skills were up to assessing the race with a fresh set of eyes once we knew the final field and he does smack to me as the most likely winner even at 2/1 and below as he is quoted right now. In the aftermath of the 2000 Guineas most - including me - were obsessing over whether Field Of Gold should have won and judging by what has happened since, we now know the answer to that question, but some shrewdies were already piling into Shadow Of Light for this race following his fine, but slightly non staying, run for third.

When this race came into being it was deduced that the majority of market leaders would be horses coming from the Guineas who looked like a step down in trip could suit them. This did not happen, however, until last year when Inisherin dropped down from the Newmarket mile to win this and I think history will repeat itself. Watching the Guineas back he looks the most likely winner until the petrol tank starts to ebb out and with his optimal trip looking like a sharp seven or stiff six, which Ascot and the Commonwealth Cup offer, I think he could be one of the more impressive winners of the week.

Of course, this will be a tough race to win even for the best horse in the race and I do not want to completely dismiss the Ballydoyle pair, athough Ryan choosing Whistlejacket over Ides Of March has confused me a tad as if the choice were mine I'd most certainly have picked the latter there. He rates the chief threat to Shadow Of Light in my eyes regardless of the rider, with Jonquil also making some appeal for Andrew Balding. With all that being said, I think this will be Shadow Of Light's breakout performance as one of the stars of this three year old classic generation and can put no one off backing him at current prices. He'll go off short and all things being equal, he'll win.

15:40 Royal Ascot - Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes

Roger Varian is a trainer when I first got into racing I could never get a handle on, as he seemed to take the same softly softly approach with all of his horses no matter their profile, breeding or run style. He's had some smashing animals over the years and while FRENCH DUKE is not in the class of Postponed or King Of Steel, I do reckon he can be another Ascot winner for the trainer despite this being his first run of the campaign. With other trainers that'd put me off, but with Varian patience is the name of the game and since his second here to wrap up last season, i have a feeling the team have been working backwards from this race.

We have seen that hold up horses are having plenty of success already this week which plays into French Duke's hands and I am very happy to see him get box 15 here as you want a high draw in this race. He was a decent enough sixth in last Roya Ascot's King George V handicap for three year olds but has kicked on since then, winning at Glorious Goodwood before a fine second on ground softer than ideal back here on Champions Day.

He has everything in his favour to run a mighty race here and while he has been hit with a hike in the weights for in particular his Champions Day second, he's the sort who'll have improved out of all recognition from three to four and I think this could well be the last time we see him in a handicap like this before heading back to Glorious Goodwood for a bigger, Group prize. 

Ethical Diamond rates the main danger for Willie Mullins off a 2lbs lower mark than he finished fourth with in this race last year, although I do suspect he is a tricky customer, while Hand Of God is another I fear for Harry Charlton, but his prominent run style may be his undoing with rattling finishers like French Duke on the scene.

17:35 Royal Ascot - King Edward VII Stakes

It is a wrench for me to desert Wimbledon Hawkeye having supported him more often than not in his career, but I can't see this marked step up in trip suiting the Dante third and thus I am going to let him run without my cash. Congratulations in advance then to all those who keep the faith, but we move on and I think PUPPET MASTER is being a bit disrespected at 9/2, for all that price makes sense with Amiloc taking up such a large chunk of the market.

It was somewhat surprising to see him win the Lingfield Derby Trial and then skip Epsom, albeit the team won't mind one jot with Lambourn doing the business for them in that iconic Epsom race. This race is often called the Derby of Royal Ascot, so perhaps there is some method to the madness from team Ballydole and given this Camelot colt looks to be blessed with abundant stamina, I wouldn't be surprised to see something similar to Thursday's Ribblesdale take place with one of the underlings from Aidan O'Brien - probably Galveston - go off like a scalded cat and force the race to be a real stamina sapping test. That'll suit Puppet Master down to the ground and he's the one for me.

Best laid plans don't always come to fruition, of course, and the favourite and second favourite both look like horses who'll enjoy it if team tactics play out in that manner, however I am not keen to take sub 2/1 about unbeaten Amiloc considering he is unproven on ground this quick and Zahrann would actually rate to my eye as more of the main danger. Puppet Master is the one they all have to beat in my books, however, and I'll be backing him accordingly.