Epsom Oaks Tips: Seaward Can Win ay 66/1

Ylang Ylang is all the rage for The Oaks and with the third favourite in the race a stablemate of the Frankel filly, it would be no surprise to see her shorten up further to give Aidan O'Brien an eleventh Oaks win and delight the Ballydoyle faithful. There is a deep field of smashing three year old fillies behind her, however, and there can be a case - albeit a small one in some cases - made for all 12. Billy Grimshaw is taking a swing at one at a huge price and makes the case here...

If you were looking anywhere other than Ballydoyle or Clarehaven for the Oaks winner over the last decade, you were coming home disappointed. The scoreboard reads O'Brien 6-4 Gosden but this year there is no representative from John and Thady Gosden, which perhaps unsurprisingly leaves the two O'Brien runners Ylang Ylang and Rubies Are Red heading the market.

The smart money is probably on the favourite truth be told, as the more one watches her fifth in the 1000 Guineas the more there is to like.

She looks to have a brilliant attitude and tried her heart out when clearly not suited by the course or the inadequate trip. Her staying on run toward the end of the race screamed Oaks filly and bookmakers certainly did not miss the run, cutting her into 4/1 favourite generally.

She is now 2/1 with Midnite and while I am not excited by that price one bit, I would not want to be laying her. Ryan Moore will ride and with O'Brien recently revealing he is struggling to have his string cherry ripe at the beginning of the season considering how long the worldwide flat season now rumbles on for, we can expect plenty of improvement from Ylang Ylang from Newmarket to Epsom.

I would certainly rather have her than second favourite and stablemate Rubies Are Red, who although probably the best horse in the race when beaten in a Lingfield Oaks trial by You Got To Me - who is also in here - does not strike me as the sort of filly who deserves to be sub 5/1 for a Classic.

She is talented, no doubt, but not quite in the star quality division I'd want to be backing one at that price at. At the prices I'd rather have the horse who beat her to uphold the form, as she certainly wasn't stopping at Lingfield despite getting a soft lead and at ten points bigger, she is surely the value play if you like that form line.

I'm not crazy about the Lingfield trial, truth be told, but I am more keen on the Cheshire Oaks as a precursor for this race that could hold some weight. On the day Forest Fairy was a worthy winner and now deserves to be the most fancied of Ralph Beckett's runners in here at around the 8/1 mark.

However, is she really eight times more likely to claim glory than her stablemate and 66/1 outsider with Midnite SEAWARD?

Let's start with the negatives; Seaward was outbattled at Chester. Port Fairy - another from Balldoyle who could've been here but sidesteps the race - got into a battle with her a long way out at Chester and while the duo fought things out on the inner, Forest Fairy found a gap and flew home to land the spoils in the centre of the track.

In the end Seaward was a length and a half off the winner when crossing the line, however her race was run at that point and she'd lost the battle with Port Fairy. Not exactly a dream trial, but not a performance that you'd say is horrific form.

Now onto the positives - and I think there are plenty. Firstly, the price is just plain wrong surely. This is a filly by Sea The Stars who is bred to relish this distance and if she is anything like her father, the undulations of Epsom will be no bother whatsoever. Secondly, she was attempting to lead them all a merry dance at Chester which although it did work in her sole win at Ascot last season was perhaps not the wisest strategy considering it was her first run in 208 days and she was blatantly very fresh.

That brings me onto my next point, she was beaten at Chester by race fit rivals. Is it inconceivable she could find more than a couple of lengths improvement now she has had a prep and blown the cobwebs off?

I think the switch from Hector Crouch to Silvestre De Sousa is a positive and whatever the jockey decides to do, be it blast off from the front or sit tight, I'll be having a decent each-way wager on her. There are a host more who have a squeak in here at shorter and even longer prices, notably Musidora winner Secret Satire who could be anything, as could Dermot Weld's Ezeliya who is simply too short on what she's done but cannot be ruled out.

If the rain comes I'll also be adding Making Dreams for Karl Burke - she is 100/1 at the time of writing but won't be if the ground goes soft. She ran an appalling race last time out, hence her current price, but before that dotted up by six lengths over in France in the mud. I'll have to put them both in a lifechanging forecast now I've mentioned her, but the crux of this piece is take on the front of the market with SEAWARD.