Breeders' Cup Saturday Tips: Selections On Classic Day
All European eyes - and indeed the eyes of the racing world - will be on Ballydoyle superstar City Of Troy as he becomes the latest Aidan O'Brien star to attempt to snare the Breeders' Cup Classic for Coolmore. He may well be their best suited runner yet, but there are other belting races on Saturday's card and on these pages Billy Grimshaw provides us with three bets...
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19:41 Del Mar - Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
It has been a season of frustration for followers of BELIEVING, but with the draw absolutely crucial in sprint turf races at Del Mar I think she finally could have her day in the sun here after the gods have blessed her with box one. Her main rivals and conquerors in Britain and Europe this season has been Bradsell, but he is stuck out wide and at Del Mar that is a seriously tough place to be. He's next to Big Evs, another high class British runner who won at the meeting last year but has had his chances massively hampered by the draw.
Believing will need to start alertly, something which she is not guaranteed to do looking at her profile, but she's in the right place to do it and has the goat on board in Ryan Moore, who is the best man for the job. The one they all have to beat is the home team's Cogburn according to the odds compilers, however this rapid five I'm not sure is exactly what this horse wants considering he is proven over five and a half as well as six. He looks a bit too short and I'm happy to swerve.
The fact this is the first time for a lot of the Euros to be running round a bend is another massive negative for those who are drawn wide, and in turn is a positive for Believing who could get boxed in in the best possible way by the field. Blinkers are on, she's 3 from 3 left handed and has experience round the bend, so I'm expecting a big run.
21:01 Del Mar - Breeders' Cup Turf
This is a really tricky race to be confident in, with plenty in here coming with points to prove as well as some like Rebel's Romance who are rock solid but are hardly priced up in a way to get the pulses racing. He is a real globetrotter for Charlie Appleby and as such we know he should handle all the faffing about beforehand no problem, and while in some races at Del Mar a wide draw would be a massive negative, here there is plenty of time on the long run in to get into a better position and so box 11 shouldn't rule him out.
I don't have stones to throw at the horse, but can't back him in a race this deep at 5/2. Emily Upjohn was struck from my list after I tipped her up last time out but he third to Bluestocking in September now looks very good and a massive upgrade can be given to her chances with Frankie taking over from Kieran Shoemark in the plate. That could be all she needs to bounce right back to her best, but again the price is just not doing it for me.
A horse I will be against - despite my one sided love affair with Ryan Moore - is his mount Luxembourg, who I think has just become a real B+ player at Ballydoyle and while he may look in contention here for a long way, I expect something to go past him. Far Bridge is best of the home team, and Jayarebee also deserves a mention although I worry about the ground, but the horse to back is WINGSPAN, the perceived Ballydoyle second string.
Many seem to expect Ryan Moore to set the pace with Luxembourg in here, however Wingspan is a proper front runner and fast ground combined with this newish trip of a mile and a half could see the three year old filly, who gets weight all round, put in a career best I think here under Wayne Lordan. I'd love to see the second stringer blast off in front and be left to her own devices by the other jockeys, as I don't think she'd slow down so doubt they could rein her in. She's the one with the most upside in here and if how I envisage the race panning out comes to pass, she's a knocking each-way bet.
23:45 Del Mar - Breeders' Cup Mile
This should be a cracker of a race, albeit some sparkle was wiped off when Ramatuelle was scratched by the vets on Friday morning. Notable Speech comes here a Classic winner but despite on that day at Newmarket looking a world beater, things have not really gone to plan for Charlie Appleby's star since. He was stuffed in the St James' Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot on ground similar to that which he'll face in Del Mar, which does not bode well, but then came out after and won on good to firm in a much better performance to claim the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood.
Any thoughts Ascot was just a blip however was dismissed with his flop again last time out at Longchamp, albeit that was on soft ground and he did not seem to take to that surface. At the prices he has enough question marks to be swerved, for all that Appleby seems to be happy with him and the rattling quick ground may lend itself to his rapid turn of foot. I'd rather be with the more consistent second favourite PORTA FORTUNA for Donnacha O'Brien to go a place better than she managed in the Juvenile turf last season.
Since being agonisingly beaten a neck in the 1000 Guineas she has racked up a hat trick of high class wins, all on good ground. Those races have all been against her own sex and now she steps out of that company to take on the boys, but I think looking at the way she travels she will love the rattling ground at Del Mar and the draw in 7 is fair enough. She is rock solid and can cap a tremendous season with arguably her most impressive triumph yet.