ITV Racing Tips: Town Moor Tips On Friday at Doncaster's St Leger Meeting
Billy Grimshaw returns with his latest ITV Racing tips on Friday as the St Leger Festival continues at Doncaster.
Five races from Town Moor will be shown live on ITV, including the Group 2 Flying Childers Stakes and Doncaster Cup, and Billy has gone through the televised card to pick out his two strongest bets. He starts with a filly dropping back into her own age group in the Flying Childers before siding with a lightly raced course-and-distance winner later on the card.
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14:25 Doncaster - Carlsberg Danish Pilsner Flying Childers Stakes
It requires a bit of forgiveness to back a horse coming here having finished 14th of 14 last time, but I think PERSHAADA has been presented with a completely different task at Doncaster and 9/4 is still just about big enough for me.
Richard Hannon's filly was sent to the Nunthorpe at York following her impressive victory in the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes and simply found life too difficult against some of the fastest older sprinters around. She was the only two-year-old in that Group 1 and I certainly don't want to judge her too harshly for failing to make an impact at that level.
Her juvenile form before York is much more relevant.
Pershaada finished a very respectable fourth in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot before winning over five furlongs at Goodwood and then taking another significant step forward in the Molecomb. She travelled strongly that day before putting the race to bed inside the final furlong, eventually beating Adonius by two lengths, with Sale Shark four lengths behind her in fourth.
Sale Shark is probably the horse who makes that piece of form look particularly strong now. He has since won the Listed Roses Stakes at York on good to soft ground, beating Adonius by a length and a quarter, and is towards the head of the market again here.
The important point for me is that Pershaada receives the same three-pound fillies' allowance from Sale Shark at Doncaster that she did when beating him decisively at Goodwood. If anything, his subsequent victory simply advertises how good her Molecomb performance was.
Final Objective is respected after finishing second in the Gimcrack, but all five of his starts have come over six furlongs and he now has to show he possesses the gears for a sharp five. Pershaada has already shown that five furlongs is very much her game.
She drops back into her own age group, receives three pounds from the colts and brings arguably the strongest piece of established five-furlong form into the race. I think the Nunthorpe is best forgotten and I have to side with her at 9/4.
15:35 Doncaster - British Stallion Studs EBF Premier Fillies' Handicap
Silver Lake is an obvious favourite after rattling off a hat-trick for William Haggas, but she has become short enough for a filly who is both six pounds higher than at York and stepping beyond a mile and a quarter for the first time.
I'd rather take around 9/2 about NOCHEBUENA, whose claims under Friday's conditions look very straightforward.
Ralph Beckett's filly has only raced four times and has never finished outside the first four. More importantly, the best piece of evidence for tomorrow's assignment came over this exact course and distance in June.
She made most of the running in a mile-and-a-half novice here on good to soft ground and showed a really likeable attitude when challenged by Kenneth in the closing stages. Having been headed, she rallied to get back up and win by half a length. That matters to me because there is no guesswork surrounding the track, trip or conditions.
Nochebuena then made her handicap debut at Ascot from a mark of 83 and was beaten only a short head by Hoseki over the same distance. She is four pounds higher now, but that hardly looks excessive for a lightly raced three-year-old who remains open to plenty of improvement.
Silver Lake is unquestionably the one to beat. She has won three handicaps in succession and showed she handles good to soft ground when winning a valuable 14-runner contest at York last month. However, she only got home by a head there from a mark of 86 and has subsequently been raised to 92. She also has another two furlongs to tackle for the first time.
Ruby Wedding and Salamanca City are others I considered, but neither interests me quite as much at the prices.
Nochebuena is roughly twice the price of Silver Lake despite already being proven over Doncaster's mile and a half on good to soft ground, and I don't think we've seen anything like the best of her after only four starts.
At 9/2, she looks the value play in the race.