ITV Racing Tips: Three Picks For Cheltenham And Fontwell On Sunday

Billy Grimshaw has three ITV Racing tips for Sunday, two from the final day of Cheltenham's November Meeting and one from Fontwell, with his NAP in the Southern National. The Greatwood Hurdle gets its own preview, and there are selections for the rest of the meeting on our Cheltenham tips page.

I am writing this on Friday evening with the ground good, good to soft in places at Cheltenham and good to soft, good in places at Fontwell. ITV3 shows six races on Sunday and I have left the Greatwood to its own preview, which leaves plenty to go at elsewhere. Two of my three bets lean on the November Meeting trends I put together this week, and the other comes from a staying chase at Fontwell where the favourite has a lot to prove.

12:50 Cheltenham - mallardjewellers.com Maiden Hurdle

The market is headed by Made In Reugny and Mourne Crystal at around 11/4, and I am happy to take on both. Made In Reugny runs for Dan Skelton, who won this race in each of the last two years, but his only run came 391 days ago and I cannot find it on record. Mourne Crystal was beaten at 4/7 in a Class 4 novice hurdle at Ffos Las on his only start, and Ben Pauling has had one winner from 52 runners at this meeting since 2016. Favourites have a poor record in the novice and maiden hurdles here too, winning only seven of 30 since 2016, so I would rather look further down the list.

WOLF RAYET has the best form in the race by a distance. He was fourth in the Grade 1 juvenile hurdle at Aintree in April, beaten under six lengths, and he also ran in the Triumph Hurdle in March. On official ratings he is 133, 8lb clear of the next highest in the field, and he ran here in December when fourth in the Triumph Trial without getting a clear run. That is a different level of form from the Class 4 races most of these have contested, and around 4/1 looks fair for a horse with that much in hand on the book.

The risks are real. He is still a maiden after five runs, he has been off for 220 days, and he is always held up, which is not ideal in a 14-runner race, as only four of 53 hold-up horses have won two-mile novice hurdles with ten or more runners at these autumn meetings. Four-year-olds also have a modest record in these races. But last year's winner Soldier Reeves was a four-year-old who came from off the pace at 14/1, and this looks a soft maiden for a horse who has been chasing Grade 1 juveniles. With four places on offer with some bookmakers, WOLF RAYET is an each-way bet.

13:05 Fontwell - StoneX Southern National Handicap Chase

Jeu d'Opale heads the betting at around 7/2 for Venetia Williams, who won this race with Cloudy Glen in 2020, but I think he is the weakest of the market leaders. He has never raced beyond two and a half miles over fences, he weakened late when tried at three miles over hurdles, and he is 9lb higher than for his only chase win, which came on heavy ground in a Class 4. Add a 274-day absence and the fact that favourites are 0 from 6 in this race since 2020, and he is one I am happy to oppose at the price.

The one I want is PAPER MILL. He won over three miles and three furlongs at Market Rasen on 25 October, beating Livin On Luco by 18 and a half lengths, and that is the horse who won this race last year. Livin On Luco is 11lb better off today once his rider's claim is taken into account, but that still leaves PAPER MILL well clear on the book. He has won off 107, 112 and 117 in the past year and now runs off 122, so the handicapper has been chasing him, and his wins have come on good, good to soft and soft ground. Charlie Hammond, who has ridden him in every one of his races under Rules, keeps the ride.

There are three things against him. He is ten, and the last six winners of this race were all aged seven or eight. He has never run at Fontwell, where the tight figure-of-eight chase course does not suit every horse. And his last two wins came in four-runner races, so this is a much tougher test. But at 5/1 he sits right in the 3/1 to 13/2 range that every winner of this race since 2020 has come from, and with Livin On Luco, Mask Of Zorro and Call Me Legend all likely to want the lead, he should get a lead into the race. PAPER MILL rates my NAP, each-way with the bookmakers paying four places.

14:35 Cheltenham - Oddschecker Handicap Chase

Havaila is the 3/1 favourite after winning his last three, including the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown in April, and he is a progressive stayer. I have two doubts about him here. He has never run at Cheltenham, and he is always held up, which matters in a race where the front-runners have done so well. Only one favourite has won this race in the last ten runnings, and since 2017 the horse who made the running has won three times and been placed eight times from nine runners. On good ground in 2018, 2021 and 2024, the winner made the running each time.

That makes ASK BREWSTER the obvious one for me. He will lead, he has won both of his starts at Cheltenham, over this course and distance in April 2025 and in the Kim Muir at the Festival in March, and both of those wins came on good ground. On a line through Road To Home, whom both he and Havaila have beaten narrowly, there is little between him and the favourite at level weights, and he gets 4lb from him today. In a nine-runner race on this ground, that front-running style is a big asset.

The concern is his last run. He was beaten 27 lengths in the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown in April, but he was taken on for the lead throughout on ground that was good to firm in places, and he has had a break since. Monbeg Genius and Double Powerful could try to go with him early, and both the trainer and jockey are short of winners at the moment. With only three places on offer, each-way is not worth the extra stake, and at 6/1 ASK BREWSTER is a win bet.