Irish Champion Stakes Betting Tips: 5/1 Chance Can Upset Home Favourite

Billy Grimshaw turns his attention to Saturday’s Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown, where a high-class field of eight will go to post for one of the biggest ten-furlong races of the season.

The first three home from last month’s Juddmonte International all meet again, with Constitution River attempting to bounce back from his York defeat, Item bidding to confirm that form and Almaqam looking to reverse a narrow verdict with his old rival.

This is a brilliant renewal of the Irish Champion Stakes and, while Constitution River and Item are clearly the two horses the market wants to side with, I am not convinced there should be as much between them and ALMAQAM as the prices suggest.

Constitution River had looked one of the outstanding three-year-olds of the season before York. He won the French Derby and Eclipse during a five-race winning sequence, and there were obvious excuses for his Juddmonte defeat. He raced too freely, was closer to the pace than ideal and never really settled into the race, yet he still finished a respectable third.

He could easily reverse that form here, but 7/4 leaves very little margin for error. We are being asked to assume York was simply a blip and that he immediately returns to his previous level in another very strong Group 1.

Item is much harder to knock. His York win was excellent because he did not enjoy the clearest passage through the race, yet still managed to reel in ALMAQAM in the closing strides. He has now won all three of his starts at York this season and his overall record is extremely impressive.

The question for me is whether we have now reached the point where his price fully reflects that improvement. Leopardstown is a very different track to York and this race can become tactical, particularly if nobody wants to commit too early.

That could suit Almaqam, who was beaten only a head by Item in the Juddmonte and looked for much of the final furlong as though he had done enough to win.

He travelled beautifully that day, moved into the race with real purpose and made Item work extremely hard to get past him. The pair pulled three and a half lengths clear of Constitution River, and I struggle to understand why one is now 5/2 while the other is 9/2.

Almaqam has already proved he belongs at this level, having won the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh earlier in the season, and his York performance showed that was no one-off.

There is also something to be said for experience here. Almaqam is five now, thoroughly battle-hardened and we know exactly what his optimum setup looks like. He does not need to improve a stone to win this; he simply needs to reproduce the level he has already shown twice this season. That makes him a much more straightforward betting proposition than his price implies.

The key to Almaqam has always been getting the right conditions. His disappointing fourth in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot came on ground that was quicker than ideal, whereas there was a little more ease when he won at the Curragh and again when he ran so well at York.

Ed Walker has also been very positive about how the horse has come out of the Juddmonte. He has said ALMAQAM has been fresh and well at home and that a little ease in the ground brings out the best in him. Leopardstown is currently good, with light rain around, so I certainly would not be unhappy to see a shower or two before the race.

There are dangers beyond the obvious three. A Boy Named Susie has continued to progress and arrives on the back of a Royal Whip success, while Hotazhell already has Group 1 form and knows Leopardstown well. Wimbledon Hawkeye is another interesting runner after being supplemented, but all three need to produce a new personal best to win a race of this strength.

For me, the race revolves around the York trio.

Constitution River may well be the most talented horse in the field and I would not be surprised if he wins, but that possibility is built firmly into his price. Item deserves enormous respect after York, yet he had things fall his way late and now has to prove he can reproduce that level away from the Knavesmire.

Almaqam, meanwhile, has already shown he can perform to the required standard at more than one track. He is a Group 1 winner in Ireland, was beaten only a head by Item last time and appears to arrive here in excellent condition.

At 9/2, I would much rather back him than take shorter odds about either of the two horses immediately ahead of him in the market.

There is very little between these three on their most recent meeting, and I think the betting has exaggerated the gap.

There is also the possibility that this turns into more of a test of positioning than raw speed. Leopardstown rewards horses that travel and can hold a good place before the straight, and that is another box Almaqam ticks.

With conditions potentially turning slightly more in his favour and a tactical race likely to play to his strengths, ALMAQAM is the bet at 9/2 in the Irish Champion Stakes.