St Leger Betting Tips: Billy Grimshaw Previews 250th Running Of Oldest Classic

The oldest Classic in the world takes place at Doncaster on Saturday afternoon, with the St Leger celebrating its 250th renewal. In what is sure to be a historic occasion, Billy Grimshaw is siding with a tried and trusted performer on the biggest of stages...

The 250th running of the St Leger takes centre stage at Doncaster on Saturday and, for all that the market has become increasingly excited about the progressive Enceladus, I think the Derby winner CHRISTMAS DAY has become the value at 5/2.

Aidan O’Brien’s colt has already achieved considerably more than anything else in this field, most notably when running out a convincing winner of the Derby at Epsom in June. He travelled strongly close to the pace that day before taking the race by the scruff of the neck in the straight, ultimately beating Maltese Cross by two and three-quarter lengths on soft ground.

Christmas Day backed that performance up when second to stablemate Benvenuto Cellini in the Irish Derby. He was beaten a length and three-quarters at the Curragh, but there was certainly no disgrace in that effort and he again finished in front of Pierre Bonnard, who reopposes here.

His most recent third in the Great Voltigeur at York is probably the reason we are now being offered 5/2, but I am not particularly keen to mark him down for that run.

Firstly, the race was always being used as a stepping stone towards Doncaster. Secondly, Christmas Day had to carry a 5lb Group 1 penalty, something stablemate Pierre Bonnard did not have to contend with. Maltese Cross won the race, with Pierre Bonnard second and Christmas Day third, but the winner has subsequently been aimed at the Arc rather than the Leger.

Most interestingly, O’Brien has since said he always felt Christmas Day would have the advantage over Pierre Bonnard once they reached a mile and six furlongs, whereas Pierre might be the better suited of the pair to a mile and a half. That is exactly how I see the two Ballydoyle runners as well.

The additional distance is important. Christmas Day has never looked short of stamina and there was plenty about both his Epsom victory and his York performance to suggest that rather than stretching him, the Leger trip might actually bring about another step forward. Doncaster is also a much more conventional test than Epsom, which should allow Ronan Whelan to get him into a rhythm before asking him to use that stamina late.

Enceladus is the obvious danger and it is easy to understand why he has been backed into favouritism. Joseph O’Brien’s colt is unbeaten in three starts this season, progressing from a Cork maiden to the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot before taking another step forward to win the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood. He stayed on powerfully over a mile and a half there and his pedigree gives little reason to worry about the longer trip.

He is undoubtedly the unknown quantity in the race and could improve again. However, at around 2/1 we are now being asked to take a shorter price about Enceladus making the leap from a Group 3 into a Classic than we are about a proven Derby winner producing his best form.

That feels the wrong way round to me.

Pierre Bonnard also has to be respected and his York second was a good effort, particularly given how much better he has become as this season has progressed. But he has now had five runs this year without winning, and Christmas Day has already finished ahead of him in the Irish Derby despite the pair meeting again on level terms here.

There are some interesting runners at bigger prices, including Highwayman and Hatteen, but they have considerably more to find on what they have achieved so far. This looks a race in which the established Group 1 horses and the rapidly improving Enceladus should dominate.

I can understand why Enceladus has become fashionable, but the move in the market has created the bet. Christmas Day was considerably shorter earlier in the week and I would have had the pair much closer together than the current prices suggest.

We know Christmas Day possesses the class to win a Classic because he has already done it. His York run was better than the bare result considering the penalty and the fact it was his preparation for this race, while everything about his profile suggests another two furlongs should be in his favour.

At 5/2, Christmas Day is the best bet in the St Leger.