ITV Racing Tips: Two Saturday Fancies On Ayr Gold Cup Day

Billy Grimshaw returns with his latest ITV Racing tips on Saturday as the focus switches to two of the biggest sprint prizes left on the Flat calendar.

Seven races will be shown live on ITV1 and STV from Newbury and Ayr, with the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes and the Group 3 World Trophy leading the way in Berkshire before the cameras head north for the Doonside Cup, the Firth of Clyde and the Ayr Gold Cup itself. Billy has gone through the full televised schedule and picked out his two strongest bets, starting with a three-year-old dropping back in company at Newbury...

13:02 Newbury – Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (Group 3)

Starlust heads the market at around 11/4 for Ralph Beckett and Rossa Ryan, and it isn't hard to see why. She holds the highest official rating in the field on 129 and has already won at this level this season.

The trouble is she hasn't beaten anything of real note since the spring. There's a decent placed effort in there among her recent starts, but she's been running well enough in defeat without threatening to actually win, and I want more from a market leader than a string of one-paced efforts.

Redorange and First Instinct both have claims from yards in decent form, while Diligent Harry is fascinating market money with Ryan Moore booked by Clive Cox, even though his own placed effort came back in the spring and his most recent run over this course and distance was a well-below-par eighth.

For me, this is about MISS YECHANCE.

Keiran Burke's filly won impressively last time out, and it was a performance that had been building for weeks rather than arriving out of nowhere — she'd been knocking on the door with a couple of solid placed efforts beforehand. She has taken time to find herself this season but is clearly doing so now, and as a three-year-old she picks up a valuable slice of weight-for-age allowance off the likes of Starlust and Redorange, going to post on 8st 13lb against their 9st 3lb.

Jack Nicholls retains the ride and there is nothing to suggest last time's step forward was a one-off. Fillies who take time to come to their form as three-year-olds tend to keep finding more as the season goes on, and doing so from an ideal supporting weight in a race like this is exactly the sort of profile worth siding with.

At around 12/1, with the market clearly preferring the bigger names at the top of the betting, she looks the value play in this race.

13:55 Ayr – Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed)

I

ce Max is sent off favourite at around 11/4 for Keiran Burke and Sam James, and the case starts and ends with the number next to his name — his rating of 124 is comfortably the best on offer in this field.

The trouble is his recent form doesn't match those figures. He's had to dig out a fourth and a sixth among his last few starts, and a horse who is supposedly the best of them by a distance on the ratings shouldn't be working that hard against opposition like this. Sea Scout and Fast Tracker both have obvious claims from yards going well, while Ecureuil Secret is another interesting name back after a break.

For me, though, this is about GREY CUBAN.

Hugo Palmer's runner is rated 122, just two pounds behind the favourite, and his recent form reads considerably better than that narrow gap in the ratings would suggest. He's been placed or won in four of his last five outings, including a clear second last time out, and that's a horse building towards a career-best performance rather than standing still.

Saffie Osborne takes the ride, and I simply cannot get away from the fact that a two-pound difference in the ratings has turned into a gap of 11/4 to 9/1 in the betting. That looks a significant overreaction to me.

At around 9/1, with the market leader's recent form doing nothing to justify his rating, Grey Cuban looks the value play in this Listed contest.