Northumberland Plate Tips: Eight Year Old Looks Golden For Glory

The feature race on Saturday comes from Newcastle, the Northumberland Plate. A valuable pot to win for stayers on the flat, there have been some thrilling renewals of the race of late and hopefully we see another come 15:!5 in the North East. Billy Grimshaw has scoured the field and thinks he's found the winner in the shape of a long term plot...

It's never easy picking the winner in this race, and 5/1 the field exemplifies that, but there are at least a few we can put a line (in pencil, you never know when a horse has stones in hand these days) through due to their draw or race style. I do not want to be with anything drawn low on the all-weather here at Newcastle as the record of those in these marathon races is shocking, and I am also keen to be on more of a stalker or at most a midfield runner as the pacesetters are often reeled in and comfortably beaten here. 

Although his draw is fine in 14, I am therefore against East India Dock as on the level and over jumps he has always been ridden positively which could well negate his chance here, He is a tough sort for just four years old but is also unproven on the AW so was an easy one for me to swerve. If you are sending over a horse to run in a race like this and are given a disadvantageous draw like stall one, you want a jockey on that you know will have no problem anchoring himself to the rear and forgetting all about the draw as the 2m race unfolds and in Jamie Spencer Willie Mullins has booked the perfect pilot for Pappano.

It'll be interesting if the market likes him or leaves him cold as the moves can be violent on these Closutton raiders one way or another but he's skinny enough at 6/1 considering he was pulled up on yard debut in the Triumph last time out and while this'll be more like what he was used to prior to joining the maestro Mullins, I can't have him on my mind drawn box one, the graveyard shift of this track.

That's two of the three market leaders dismissed then, but I couldn't find much to put me off the outright favourite Who's Glen and may even end up having a saver on him so that if he wins, I don't lose on the race. Andrew Balding is still lobbing along having a fine campaign and this lightly raced four year old looks nowhere near at the ceiling of his ability.

He arguably could've finished closer to East India Dock last time out in the Chester Cup when he was a held up fifth, but he now has a whopping eight pound pull in the weights compared to that day and his run-style should suit Newcastle much more than Chester did. The opposite is true for his conqueror that day. I don't have any worries about being drawn wide, although 12-16 is probably the sweet spot if being picky, and with PJ McDonald taking over in the saddle I can see no reason anyone would leave him out of exotic bets.

Last year's race could be an interesting line of form to follow for the 2025 renewal and Onesmoothoperator is back to defend his title, although his 12lbs hike in the weights won't aid his cause. I'd much prefer to side with the third a year ago Duke Of Oxford considering he has the better draw in 12 compared to Onesmoothoperator in 7 and is just five pounds higher than 12 months ago. He would rate as the chief danger from last season but I believe the 2023 race was stronger and as such I am more than happy to put up GOLDEN RULES to go a place better than he did two years ago.

His draw in 11 is ideal and while Silvestre De Sousa won this race as easily as any jockey has on Withhold off the front a few years ago, I think he'll be quite content sitting in the middle of the pack onboard this eight year old who we have only seen once since this race two years ago. There must've been a setback for him to miss such a chunk of time but his return in March of this year - in a race where Who's Glen finished second - was more than satisfactory for a pipe opening return to action and I suspect this day has been the plan for a long, long time.

He does get a slight pull in the weights here compared to March with the favourite although I am not reading too much into that as in the end he was well beaten at Kempton when his rider realised all chance was gone on his fresh horse following a front running ride. That will hopefully not be the tactics used here by De Sousa and so I can put a line through his comeback as a piece of form to study, and use it more as proof he is back firing. He would be one of the older winners of the race at eight but is still lightly raced and if he reproduces the run for second in 2023, I think he wins here.