Welsh Grand National Tips: Thomas Can Do It Again At Chepstow

The big race of the day on Friday comes from Chepstow and is one for the real dour stayers, the Welsh Grand National. Despite respecting the claims of a few of the market leaders, Billy Grimshaw is looking further down the racecard for a veteran at a tasty price who could be being overlooked...

I get the impression we are not quite at the end of Fontaine Collonges' improvement arc, and to rule her out even with 11st12 on her back would be foolish considering the way she won at Haydock and of course the form of her handler Venetia Williams. She was always in control that day and although a lot of the more fancied horses pulled up or unseated, I fancy she'd have won the race regardless of opposition staying on their feet. She looks a real stayer but for a mare to win this race off that weight, on her first try at a proper marathon test, would be some training performance. Perhaps Venetia can do it, she's been doing everything else this winter when it comes to staying chasers, but at the prices I can leave her be.

The same now goes for Galia Des Liteaux, who my esteemed colleague @RoadCheltenham put up when 12/1 was still available in a few places in his Christmas Best Bets piece. That price is now long gone, in fact we can't even get half of that as she is top priced 11/2, but her chance is obvious. She likes soft ground, stays longer than the mother in law and off a mark of 142 is primed to go very close indeed for the title chasing Skelton outfit. They'll have had this valuable pot circled on the calendar with more excitement than Christmas Day and she has a brilliant chance, but I can't get excited about backing her at those odds with so many potential pitfalls in this minefield of a race.

I suspect she could well go off favourite when the time comes, but right now as I pen this preview Monbeg Genius heads the market for Jonjo O'Neill. On paper he has a great chance of at least reversing form with Fontaine Collonges from Haydock, with a nice weight swing and the gelding proven over this sort of trip and on this ground. Again though, he falls into the category of a horse I just cannot really get behind at sub 5/1 odds. He may well reverse the form but he was stuffed by 12 lengths at Haydock and gun to my head if I had to back one or the other, I think I'd back repeat over revenge especially at the prices.

Where It All Began warrants massive respect crossing the Irish Sea for Gordon Elliott and he is one of the more stamina laden runners in this race. He has proven his liking for marathon tests when winning the Punchestown Grand National Trial last campaign before finishing fourth in the Kim Muir behind a potentially Grade 1 class animal in the winner. Next time out we saw him run poorly in my opinion in the Irish National at Fairyhouse, but he has been off since and has a decent record fresh. HIs jumping was awful at Fairyhouse but the fences are forgiving at Chepstow and if this becomes a real slog, he'll be right in his element.

Clearly, I think this is going to be a competitive affair and would not be advising anyone to have their max bet in a race with so many potentially worthy winners. I've still not mentioned Chambard who I reckon has a squeak for Venetia or The Newest One for Team Twiston Davies, who has always looked a horse desperate for a real test to me. Both were on the long list when deciding who my selection would be, but at 12/1 and hopefully a bit bigger nearer the time I'm willing to back Sam Thomas to work his magic once more on veteran IWILLDOIT.

The horse finished third in this race last year, but was miles off the ultra impressive winner Nassalam. Many claimed the winner that day had run to such a level he wouldn't be out of place in a Gold Cup, so there was certainly no disgrace in grabbing bronze behind him, and Iwilldoit is of course a returning winner having scooped the pot in grand style back in 2021. We then did not see him for over a year until a stunning comeback win off a 383 day break to win the Classic Chase at Warwick. Thomas kept him busy last winter by his standards, but the horse has been put away since February 2024 and I would not be surprised one bit if coming here fresh was always the plan.

He is a proper old school stayer and will just grind down his opposition if on a going day, and in a race in which we often see just a few finish I'd be confident this lad will be one of them. If he's back to his best, I cannot see him at worst in the frame and at 12/1 I think his win chance is underestimated, so back him each-way at anything double figures to hopefully bring home the bacon.