Horse Racing Betting Strategies

What Are Horse Racing Betting Strategies?

A betting strategy is a systematic approach to selecting horses and managing bets that attempts to turn the house edge into an advantage for the bettor. While random betting is purely chance-based, betting strategies for horse racing use statistical analysis to assess probabilities and identify potential value. If you hope to achieve more than the occasional win a betting strategy is essential.

Why You Need a Betting Strategy in Horse Racing

A professional bettor does not place a bet based on a hunch or a feeling. Every bet they place is the result of careful analysis driven by their preferred betting strategy. The best betting strategies for horse racing help the professional identify value: those instances where the odds presented by the bookmaker are lower than the odds the bettor's analysis suggests they should be.

If there is one truism about the best betting strategies to use for horse racing it's that they all require discipline on the part of the punter. There is no room for emotional decisions or the aforementioned hunches. Even favourites win only about 33% of the time, so if the punter is to prevail they need to adhere to their betting strategy, carefully manage their bankroll and avoid chasing losses.

Top Horse Racing Betting Strategies That Work

The following betting strategies have proven effective for professional bettors and are flexible enough to accommodate different people's betting styles and tolerance for risk.

Value Betting Strategy

With value betting the bettor conducts a probability assessment regarding a given horse's chances of winning and compares the results of that assessment with odds being offered by the bookmaker. Should the punter determine that the bookmaker's odds are higher than they should be, he (the punter) will consider this bet a good value. 

For example: let's say the bookmaker has priced a horse at 5/1 to win. This indicates the bookmaker believes the horse has a 16.7% chance of winning. But if the punter's market analysis has determined the horse actually has a 25% or 30% chance of winning, he'll take the bookmaker's odds hoping to cash in. In a nutshell, undervalued horses are at the heart of a value betting strategy.

The Dutching Strategy

The Dutching system involves backing multiple horses in the same race. It's a way to increase the chance of winning, while also ensuring the multiple selections produce a guaranteed profit. The Dutching strategy is often used when several horses in a given race each have a strong chance of winning, making it difficult to pick just one. In order to get the stakes right using the Dutching strategy, the bettor will need to perform careful calculations or use a betting calculator. 

Dutching typically produces low-risk returns which is fine for professional bettors whose aim is to walk away with something from as many wagers as possible.

The 80/20 Strategy

With the 80/20 strategy, the bettor places 80% of their stake on a horse to place and 20% on the same horse to win. The 80/20 strategy aims to balance risk and reward by providing a kind of safety net (the place bet) should the horse not win but still finish in the money. Even this strategy requires careful analysis though, since you want to select a horse with a solid chance of placing and whose chances of winning you determine to be underestimated by the bookmaker. 

Professional bettors intent on risk management often use this split stakes approach because it provides a chance for consistent returns while keeping the door open for a big win in the form of the undervalued horse.

Each-Way Betting Strategy

Each-way betting involves placing 2 bets on a single horse: one bet to win and the other to place. In most cases, the bettor will look for horses whose odds of placing are 1/4 or 1/5. At the same time, the horse's odds to win should be somewhere between 8/1 and 20/1 in large-field handicaps. This way, if the horse wins the punter enjoys a handsome payout. But if the horse fails to win, yet still finishes in the money, the punter can turn a modest profit.

Laying the Favourite Strategy

Laying favourites means betting against the favourite in a horse race. While this might seem a curious approach to the unseasoned punter it is a pretty conservative strategy given that favourites lose around 66% of the time. Even so, careful analysis should precede betting against the favourite. Professional bettors typically favour this strategy when their analysis shows the favourite does not perform particularly well on the expected track conditions, or when they determine the favourite is overpriced due to market sentiment.

Following In-Form Trainers Strategy

Trainers are like football managers, they tend to go on streaks where it seems they can do no wrong. The in-form trainer's strategy is all about backing horses handled by trainers that are currently enjoying consistently strong results. Said results can easily be found in the racing form or through other sources. 

If the trainer has produced consistent positive results over the previous 2-3 weeks the bettor wagers on the trainer continuing their hot streak, as much as they bet on the horse itself. This strategy is sometimes used to reveal value bets, especially in low-profile races where trainer form or stable statistics are often overlooked.

Key Horse Strategy

With the key horse strategy the bettor hones in on a horse they believe has a good chance to win or place and uses their wager on that "key" horse as the centrepiece of an exacta, trifecta or other type of exotic wagering. In a trifecta, for example, you would bet the key horse to win and select others to finish second. The key horse strategy keeps costs low while simultaneously increasing coverage. Making such key selections is typically done when the punter is confident about one horse but not so sure about the others. 

Place and Show Betting Strategy

The place and show betting strategy is a conservative betting strategy whereby the punter backs horses to finish in the money but not necessarily to win outright. This is among the low-risk strategies many professional bettors favour in their quest to produce consistent, if unspectacular, results. 

With a strategy based on place betting and show betting you have a better chance to produce higher strike rates than you would betting strictly to win. It is often used when the punter identifies horses with a reputation for reliable performance as opposed to dominance.

Advanced Horse Racing Betting Strategies

Advanced horse racing strategies carry with them both enhanced risk and a chance to enjoy larger payouts. These strategies are typically the domain of experienced bettors with a significant bankroll and an appetite for risk.

Multi-Race Strategies (Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 6)

Multi-race betting strategies require the bettor to choose winners in consecutive races. The more races involved the greater the degree of difficulty and the potential payout. Based on ticket construction, pick 3, 4 and 6 bets are essentially accumulator bets. There is no doubt that pick 3 betting, pick 4 betting or a pick 6 bet is a long-shot but it is possible to win if the punter is disciplined in conducting their analysis. 

The big draw of this type of betting strategy is the possibility of enjoying significant payouts with minimal investment. This harkens back to one of the fundamental rules of successful betting: sound bankroll management.

Trifecta and Superfecta Box Strategies

The box bet is a bet that allows the punter to wager on multiple horses to finish in any order, provided they finish within a set range of positions. Whereas a standard trifecta strategy only pays out if you correctly predict the exact finishing order, trifecta box betting earns a payout as long as your horses place in any order within the given range. The same goes for the superfecta box bet. As long as your 4 selections occupy the designated range the bet returns a payout regardless of the order of finish.

Yankee and Patent System Betting

Yankee and patent betting involves making multiple selections in different races. In the case of the Yankee bet you must place a total of 11 bets: 6 doubles, 4 trebles and a 4-fold acca. There are no singles allowed in the Yankee. At least 2 of these bets must win if you are to see a profit. With the patent bet, you must place a total of 7 bets: 4 singles, 3 doubles and a treble. The patent bet is considered the safer kind of system betting because the singles provide more chances of making partial returns. The yankee, on the other hand, has the potential for a significantly higher payout.

Key Factors for Successful Horse Racing Betting

While horse racing betting strategies are important they are not the only factors to consider if you wish to place successful horseracing bets. Other factors include:

Form Analysis and Handicapping

The racing form (often just called "the form") provides a wealth of data on things like speed figures, race positioning, recent performances (look for consistent top 3 finishes) and class analysis. (A horse that moves down in class will often have an advantage.) You will also find the horse's track preferences (fast, muddy, dirt, turf etc) and sectional times that give you an idea about a horse's stamina. Weigh all this information against the current track conditions, seasonal patterns and competition and don't forget to factor in whether the jockey or trainer (or both) are currently on form or in slumps.

Track Conditions and Weather Impact

Weather and track conditions play a central role in determining the outcome of many horse races. When the track is dry it's called "fast" and there are some horses that do better on a fast track than others. Then again, if the track is muddy the yielding nature of the track surface will undermine the ability of certain horses to perform, while so-called "mudders" will flourish. Changing weather patterns and track conditions can cause market movements too as money shifts from one type of horse to the other. It's vital that you always check the track conditions before placing your bet.

Jockey and Trainer Analysis

Like all athletes, jockeys go through periods where it seems they can't lose. The same is true with trainers. But the law of averages is unforgiving and eventually everyone comes back to earth. It's important to know how a given jockey or trainer has been performing over the past 2-4 weeks. You can find jockey statistics and trainer patterns in the horse racing form. There they will list recent win percentages, place finishes and strike rates. Should a jockey or trainer have multiple wins recently or end up consistently among the top 3 finishers he can be considered in form. You should also check to see their record at the current track and how they do in different weather conditions.

Bankroll Management for Horse Racing

When wagering on horses it's important that you have bankroll protection and staking plans. The simplest type of plan is to set daily limits on both wins and losses. For instance, if you set a target level for profits you stop when you reach it. This will help prevent you from getting carried away and maybe losing everything. You can do the same for losses. So, for instance, if you lose 20% of your bankroll on a given day, stop betting for the day. If you are new to betting you will find out soon enough that smart money management is key to successful wagering.

Common Horse Racing Betting Mistakes to Avoid

Bettors, especially inexperienced ones, often get into trouble betting on horses by making one or more of the following mistakes:

Chasing Losses with Bigger Stakes

The "martingale" theory states that an eventual win will wipe out all previous losses. Some interpret this to mean that they should follow a loss with bigger stakes. After all, they're "due" and they want to ensure they reap optimal rewards when their ship (or in this case, their horse) comes in. But this is not a smart betting strategy. 

A person who is chasing losses is no longer motivated by strategy, but by desperation. And because the house always has the advantage, coming out on top requires discipline, the opposite of desperation. A bettor must accept that losing is part of the game and that the only way they have any chance of coming out on top in the long-run is to adopt a sound betting strategy and stick with it.

Betting on Too Many Races

In almost every case, it is better to bet on a smaller number of horse races rather than a larger number. By focusing on certain select races, applying careful value analysis and researching form, conditions and other variables you will make informed bets that have a better chance of paying off then if you simply place scores of bets at random.

Typically, betting on a lot of races leads to poorly-considered decisions, overexposure to risk and fast depletion of the bankroll. As is the case with most things in life, quality over quality is the rule with betting if you are serious about wanting to win. Limiting the number of races you bet on helps prevent emotional decisions and impulsive wagering.

Ignoring Track Bias and Conditions

Track bias is the tendency of a given track to favour horses with certain running styles or those who are allotted certain post positions. It can also refer to known paths on a given track which when followed, tend to produce more wins and places. If a track has known biases and the bettor ignores them, or they ignore track conditions at the time of the race, they are opening themselves up for disappointment. Always do your research before laying down your money.

Following Tips Without Research

A common betting mistake is for people to receive a tip and accept it as holy writ. The right approach is to verify the tip through form analysis, analysis of track conditions, jockey and trainer stats and a value assessment. Blindly following tips can quickly undermine your betting strategy and cause emotions to enter the picture. 

Technology and Tools for Horse Racing Betting

Modern technology and tools provide insights that may not be available through other means. The following are some of the most common tools and tech available to the average punter these days.

Form Analysis Software

Form analysis software enables bettors to conduct a high-tech evaluation of a horse's past performances. It's also many times faster than trying to conduct an evaluation yourself. Form analysis software looks at speed figures, class levels, jockey performance, finishing positions, ground conditions and more and can draw attention to trends and even suggest value bets. Popular examples of form analysis software include Timeform, Proform and the interactive tools from the Racing Post.

Odds Comparison Sites

Odds comparison sites compile odds from a variety of bookmakers and present them for the punter to examine. Odds comparison sites are useful in helping bettors identify the best odds and can also be useful in helping them identify value bets. Popular UK odds comparison sites include: 

• Oddschecker: Considered by many the leading odds comparison site in the UK.
• BettingOdds: A site that focuses on UK sports, including horseracing.
• Racing Post: Compares odds with a focus on UK and Irish horseracing.

Betting Exchange Strategies

On a betting exchange, bettors wager against one another rather than against the house as they would on traditional betting sites. Instead of offering fixed odds the betting exchange charges a modest commission on winnings. When it comes to betting strategies on betting exchanges the best tend to be "dutching" and "favourite team at home" for football. While popular tennis betting strategies include "lay the favourite" and "scalping", which entails taking advantage of small, short-term price fluctuations. When done right, scalping can result in small but numerous gains.

Measuring Success and Keeping Records

As we have mentioned numerous times discipline is essential if one hopes to achieve long-term success betting on horses, or any sport for that matter. Besides respecting one's chosen betting strategy and exercising patience that also means tracking performance and keeping detailed records. Here are some ways a punter can ensure they stay on track with their long-term goals.

By Tracking Key Performance Metrics

When it comes to betting on horseracing strike rate is one of the most important metrics you need to keep track of. Strike rate represents the percentage of bets won out of the total number of bets placed. A dismal strike rate of say, 5%, indicates you should make some adjustments to your betting strategy or spend more time on research. While a strike rate of 25% means you are a better-than-average bettor. 

Another key performance metric is ROI or return on investment. This compares your net profit to the total amount bet. The higher your ROI the better your returns. Finally, with profit/loss tracking the punter records every bet placed along with the amount wagered on each bet, whether the bet won or lost and the payout or loss. 

By Adhering to Record Keeping Best Practices

When it comes to record-keeping best practices it is suggested you record most or all of the following:

• The date and time of the bet
• Where bet was placed
• The stake size
• The sport and venue
• The market type
• Track conditions
• Profit and loss
• ROI

By thoroughly analysing this information you will be able to make adjustments to your betting strategy that will help ensure more successful outcomes in the future.

By Knowing When to Adjust Their Strategy

If you perform a thorough analysis of your betting-related data and the results show consistent losses, a declining bankroll and instances where you abandoned your strategy and made emotional decisions, it's fair to say your current strategy isn't working. Chasing losses is another sure sign that you yourself have lost faith in your strategy and something needs to change.